I'm a city dweller. I pray on coffee and sandwiches on the go, sounds of cafes and subway soothe me and car fumes etched my lungs while I was infant, crippled my immune system for good. The city breathes, it has its own heartbeat, trembling under the streets. There are demons lurking in passages and walleys in the night, there are shadows of doubts and passions and sins imprinted in crosswalks and pave tiles.
I think it was in 2014 when I saw this the first time. The shift in people's feelings, the surge of excitement and a feeble protest that was smothered in a matter of days. There were subtle hints that I couldn't quite pick up at that age, unfortunately. Or maybe for the better.
Now I see with my own eyes, no goggles needed, the consequences of the past year. First, the police came. Two guys armed with pistols in every station, just standing there, talking to each other and squeezing money out of illegal immigrants on the occasion. Two more, with AK each, standing at the entrance during rush hour. I wonder if these weapons are off safety?
Every day I ride the subway and every day there is a drunk man lying on the floor. I haven't seen this in a while in the city center. They don't look homeless or too poor, you can usually tell by looking at the shoes and the coat. They look like they are lost, fell out of place, somehow ended up in the center instead of the suburb slum. Maybe boarded the wrong train or skipped a bus. Sometimes police takes them somwhere, sometimes they just watch, smirking.
I go to malls in the city for clothes and presents. Shop windows are shining with new goods, closed stores (h&m, cropp, uniqlo, and others) are replaced with new ones, either local or chinese-owned. Mostly the latter, but no one seems to care. It all looks very modern and quite civilized, there is even a robotic coffee kiosk at the entrance for some obscure reason. Someone couldn't tolerate an old-fashioned coffee machine, can't say I blame the man.
And now it's not just the glamour and the overspending. It's empty syringes in restrooms and fear in the eyes of the school students who go there for an ice cream when the weather is bad. I saw a few couples there over the years -- boy with a boy, girl with a girl. Dyed hair, good clothes, albeit expressive, holding hands and laughing louder than considered polite. The capital was always a touch more tolerant than other cities, at least in places like this. Not anymore, not since December the first. Look over the shoulder before telling a joke, just in case. Not a paranoia, but a well-justified caution.
I will keep doing what I must, and try to tell the tale while I still can. Not because I am good at it, but because I cannot do it any other way, it seems.
It kinda is. The first 10-15 tweets contain real facts, I checked/heard from reliable sources most of them. Gang wars and the rest of the thread look questionable, I don't think any prognosis stands a chance these days, good or bad one. We (as we-the-country) are, indeed, quite fucked, but underestimating the societal inertia is quite short-sighted.
@academicalnerd I guess the thread was indeed 1) enumerating observations; and then 2) extrapolating from there. So yes, (2) is just a speculation, nothing more.
As for societal inertia - middle class/mainstream has that indeed, but where the author of the thread is IMO correct is that crooks and the underworld have no true inertia in any society - they are the most dynamic segment of any society and react/adapt the fastest. Just ask your parents about how the wild west of the 90's "felt".
When it comes to inertia, though, what I find most intriguing is that as sanctions and the new image of Russia entered middle-class "consciousness" in the West over the last year, the inertia will keep it there for at least one full generation. That is societal inertia at work. And that is no smart extrapolation, it's cheap to bet on it by now.