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Evidence for Limited Early Spread of COVID-19 Within the United States, January–February 2020
"retrospective SARS-CoV-2 testing of approximately 11,000 respiratory specimens from several U.S. locations beginning January 1 identified no positive results before February 20...
...The findings in this report are subject to at least three limitations. First, the data presented here are retrospective."
In this thread I will show that the lack of false positives makes these findings highly implausible, and I will show that other studies have had contradictory results.
Jorden MA, Rudman SL, et al. Evidence for Limited Early Spread of COVID-19 Within the United States, January–February 2020. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2020;69:680–684. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6922e1
Waiting for the truth: is reluctance in accepting an early origin hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 delaying our understanding of viral emergence?
"Although the current canonically accepted timeline hypothesises viral emergence in Wuhan, China, in November or December 2019, a growing body of diverse studies provides evidence that the virus may have been spreading worldwide weeks, or even months, prior to that time.
However, the hypothesis of earlier SARS-CoV-2 circulation is often dismissed with prejudicial scepticism and experimental studies pointing to early origins are frequently and speculatively attributed to false-positive tests...
...Several studies performed independently by different groups retrospectively demonstrated the presence of antibodies and viral RNA in clinical samples and showed SARS-CoV-2 community circulation by detecting viral RNA in wastewater at times inconsistent with November 2019 emergence...
...Each study providing evidence for early circulation of SARS-CoV 2 might look inconclusive, but combining all data together reveals an emerging pattern...
...Despite the technical limitations of available early origin studies, even a remote possibility that positive tests indicate an early SARS-CoV-2 circulation should be considered sufficient to warrant the scaling up of research to more samples from more regions and through a wider timespan.
Time is running out: valuable samples that may contain the key to the understanding of SARS CoV-2 origin might already have been destroyed as their regulatory storage time requirements lapse."
Canuti M, Bianchi S, Kolbl O, et alWaiting for the truth: is reluctance in accepting an early origin hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 delaying our understanding of viral emergence?BMJ Global Health 2022;7:e008386.
