Lab leak vs natural spill over is a distraction from the lack of evidence that COVID-19 is a viral pandemic originating in China.

In my previous threads I showed that the lockdown in Wuhan was too late.

I showed that all cause mortality was already well above normal and an estimated 7 million people left the city in the weeks leading up to the lockdown, including 300,000 people on the eve of the lockdown.

I showed that the vast majority of international travelers went to other Asian countries.

I showed that studies, including the Seattle Flu Study, finding a lack of early spread of the virus lack plausibility due to the absence of false positives, and I showed that there is a larger body of contradictory evidence.

In this thread, I will show that the excess mortality during the spring 2020 wave was associated with a decline in emergency department utilization, not just for low acuity visits but for high acuity visits as well.

If this is confusing due to media reporting on overwhelmed hospitals, the confusion is coming from the fact that the emergency department and intensive care unit are separate.

I will present data showing that ED utilization went down while ICU utilization went up, suggesting that patients delayed care until it was too late.

ourworldindata.org/grapher/exc

nytimes.com/interactive/2020/0

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Evidence of delays in seeking care in Paris during the spring 2020 wave:

"We retrospectively examined consecutive COVID-19 patients suffering from ARF who were treated by the Paris Fire Brigade’s basic life-support (BLS) teams in the prehospital setting.

Data were provided from primary home care providers...

...After having measured the SpO2i/RRi values in COVID-19 patients, we compared them to those of non-COVID-19 patients (i.e., patients with other causes of ARF treated by the BLS teams over the previous 3 years in the same period)...

...The median SpO2i/RRi value was significantly higher than that of patients treated in the previous 3 years"

Jouffroy, R., Jost, D. & Prunet, B. Prehospital pulse oximetry: a red flag for early detection of silent hypoxemia in COVID-19 patients. Crit Care 24, 313 (2020).

doi.org/10.1186/s13054-020-030

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