Lab leak vs natural spill over is a distraction from the lack of evidence that COVID-19 is a viral pandemic originating in China.

In my previous threads I showed that the lockdown in Wuhan was too late.

I showed that all cause mortality was already well above normal and an estimated 7 million people left the city in the weeks leading up to the lockdown, including 300,000 people on the eve of the lockdown.

I showed that the vast majority of international travelers went to other Asian countries.

I showed that studies, including the Seattle Flu Study, finding a lack of early spread of the virus lack plausibility due to the absence of false positives, and I showed that there is a larger body of contradictory evidence.

In this thread, I will show that the excess mortality during the spring 2020 wave was associated with a decline in emergency department utilization, not just for low acuity visits but for high acuity visits as well.

If this is confusing due to media reporting on overwhelmed hospitals, the confusion is coming from the fact that the emergency department and intensive care unit are separate.

I will present data showing that ED utilization went down while ICU utilization went up, suggesting that patients delayed care until it was too late.

ourworldindata.org/grapher/exc

nytimes.com/interactive/2020/0

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“The first wave (FW) of COVID-19 led to a rapid reduction in total emergency department (ED) visits and hospital admissions for other diseases…

...In the city of Torino, a large northern Italian city (870,000 inhabitants), during the first wave of the pandemic, the number of daily COVID-19 diagnoses peaked in March–April 2020…

...During the first wave peak, ED visits were reduced by 66.4% compared to 2019”

Morello, F., Bima, P., Ferreri, E. et al. After the first wave and beyond lockdown: long-lasting changes in emergency department visit number, characteristics, diagnoses, and hospital admissions. Intern Emerg Med 16, 1683–1690 (2021).

doi.org/10.1007/s11739-021-026

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