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NFL Draft Modelling: Loss Functional Analysis https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.07291 #stat.AP #stat.ME

NFL Draft Modelling: Loss Functional Analysis

In the NFL draft, teams must strategically balance immediate player impact against long-term value, presenting a complex optimization challenge for draft capital management. This paper introduces a framework for evaluating the fairness and efficiency of draft pick trades using norm-based loss functions. Draft pick valuations are modelled by the Weibull distribution. Utilizing these valuation techniques, the research identifies key trade-offs between aggressive, immediate-impact strategies and conservative, risk-averse approaches. Ultimately, this framework serves as a valuable analytical tool for assessing NFL draft trade fairness and value distribution, aiding team decision-makers and enriching insights within the sports analytics community.

arXiv.org
April 12, 2025 at 3:20 AM · · feed2toot · 0 · 0 · 0
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