Update for SE Tennessee and chances of snow before Christmas
Snow chances are down a little bit through Christmas for Chattanooga. Not exactly a surprise for us, as weather models update with better information, and the GFS model has trended towards a different solution. For more on some of these developments, read this post from yesterday written by much a more adept person than I!
https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1604258544831774722
That's not to say we drop to 0. In fact, we still have the same 3 threats, they've just evolved. Still individual probabilities are probably still around 40% that one of these giving us snow to see, which is again much higher than usual!
1. Monday Afternoon-Midnight
This storm has evolved in to more of a 'Split' storm with a northern and southern component, because the energy isn't quite meeting up properly. Northern Component goes off the Ohio Valley with snow. Southern component is mostly rain, but a chance of some snow on the northern side here. Again low chance of accumulation, but less now.
2. late Thurs/Fri
The GFS has started to become more consistent in making this a storm that digs deep...but ends up with the Low center staying inland and the ECMWF has more agreed with this solution, this this is where I'd lean. Mostly just rain on the front side from what it looks like, but a sweeping cold front would put light snow on the mountain tops, mostly west of the city. Still lots of possibilities.
3. Christmas Day
Energy is still showing up, but it's losing strength by the time it gets to Tennessee. will have everything to do with the prior storm.
