...兩邊請節制不要嚇人謝謝~
https://twitter.com/timesofindia/status/1266236577153462272?s=20
紐時也注意到兩國關係緊張:
“Even before the scuffling, India was feeling increasingly hemmed in by China’s expanding economic and geopolitical influence in South Asia.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/30/world/asia/india-china-border.html?referringSource=articleShare
這篇報導提到五月份雙方首次摩擦的時間點是在本串首嘟05/11事件之前的05/05晚。雖說媒體的均提到雙方有針對邊界問題建立溝通機制,同一個月內發生三次以上衝突,即使在此時仍顯異常。
“The PLA and Indian Army soldiers clashed at the feature called Finger 5 in the northern flank of the Pangong lake on May 5 night.
A few days later, personnel from the two armies clashed again near Naku La in Sikkim.”
同樣是看衝突,影片可以看的門道很多。
「影片中顯示一艘印度Tampa快艇(從美國進口)攔截懸掛中國國旗的模擬中國巡邏船的演習畫面,印度快艇使用了名為“漩渦戰術”,用高速快艇不斷繞代號LX系列的“中國巡邏船”轉圈航行,將目標船隻困在水流中,迫使其開始陷入渦流時返回。依目前情況來看,該湖西部45公里長的部份地區在印度的控制下,其餘部份則在中國控制之下。
該報道引據軍事評論員黃東分析,解放軍在班公錯湖出動928D巡邏艇,行內俗稱“西海艦隊”,已集結5,000多士兵,已是一個旅的兵力,印軍也不相伯仲,“雙方已經有1萬人,可以打一場不大不小嘅戰爭”。 」
😮😮😮
[ The protest against Chinese apps comes after India in April said stricter screening rules will apply to foreign direct investments from China, worrying investors there. China has said the policy is discriminatory.
"Previous boycott calls have focused on Chinese goods, whereas this one especially targets Chinese apps, which could impact Chinese technology companies who have seen India as a crucial market," ]
https://twitter.com/adityakalra/status/1267806547725279237?s=21
“传统上和平的加勒万河现在已经成为一个热点,因为这是实控线距离印度沿着什约克河(Shyok River)修到斗拉特别奥里地(Daulet Beg Oldi)的新道路最近的点。斗拉特别奥里地是拉达克地区的实控线沿线最偏远、最薄弱的地区,”
The Diplomat對最近兩國緊張情勢的分析。
“It is true that China does not consider India to be its primary strategic competitor. However, some Chinese veterans are of the opinion that China has a history of adjusting its strategic direction and has more often than not benefitted from solving contradictions in a secondary direction first, rather than the contradictions in the primary direction.”
https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/what-is-china-saying-about-the-china-india-border-stand-off/
WAPO一篇報導對這段衝突期間作出淺白說明的分析:
“If Beijing fears other nations may view China as weak or distracted by the coronavirus and the economic aftershocks, the Chinese leadership may feel it has to take a hard line against any potential challenge to Chinese sovereignty. This is true not only regarding the border with India but also with regard to Taiwan, Hong Kong and the South China Sea.”
對印中邊界的衝突,米方態度簡單清楚:
“The Chinese Communist Party has been on this effort, on this march, for an awfully long time,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said last week. “They’ll certainly use a tactical situation on the ground to their advantage.”
“中共为此,为这次推进已经努力了很长时间,”国务卿迈克·庞皮欧(Mike Pompeo)上周表示。“他们肯定会在实地利用战术优势。”
https://cn.nytimes.com/world/20200608/china-india-border-himalayas/dual/
上星期推出的共和黨國安戰略報告裡,印太重點策略的定位不變。
「”中国(中共)的宏伟战略‘中国梦’是要将国际体系转变为由中共领导的体系。” 报告建议至少从五个方面反击中国。第一,抵制中国的工业间谍活动、盗窃知识产权以及其他恶意的经济行为。第二,制止中国的恶性政治影响和虚假信息宣传运动。第三,抵制中国的侵犯人权行为。第四,应对中国的全球军事现代化。第五,加强在印度太平洋地区的联盟。」
https://www.voachinese.com/amp/rsc-report-chinese-high-ranking-officials-20200611/5459206.html
米軍的太平洋空防將被視為要務,川川連任與否都不會改變這個基礎。
“白宮送交國會的最新一份國家安全報告,名稱是《美國對中華人民共和國的戰略方針》,從公開的內容已可預見,美中兩國的戰略競爭將會進一步白熱化,過去只是少數派理論的「美中新冷戰」恐怕很快會走向現實。中國所積極發展的極音速(Hypersonic)飛彈與新一代戰略轟炸機轟-20,都讓美國必需更重視太平洋方向的空中防禦。”
從米軍的防務觀點看,扼住地圖上的南海尖端與菲律賓海的交界處,幾乎就掌握了西太平洋的交通關隘。
https://twitter.com/esperdod/status/1272579703921086467?s=21
太平洋威懾倡議的操作:
[ to create a “deterrence by punishment” framework. This would see the U.S. and its allies not only focus on strike missions on PLA military targets, but further threaten Chinese commercial shipping, impose harsh economic sanctions, and undertake other measures. The goal would be to broaden an immediate conflict into one that not only aims to defeat the PLA’s immediate military objectives, but also “punishes” Chinese political and economic leadership. ]
https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/getting-the-pacific-deterrence-initiative-right/
但我覺得米軍武器的威懾力比國會強很多...
"若以兩枚AGM-158C反艦飛彈攻擊一艘敵方艦艇的情況來計算,B-1B轟炸機所掛載的24枚飛彈能同時攻擊12個敵方目標,這已經是整個艦隊的規模。...。這款反艦反艦會先攻擊航空母艦、大型驅逐艦等價值較高的目標、或是判斷防空能力最強的艦艇,先瓦解對方的防禦網,同時也會放棄已經被擊毀的敵方艦艇,轉而選擇還有作戰能力的艦艇,不會白白浪費飛彈。這樣的設計能讓已發射的反艦飛彈擁有最大的攻擊效益。"
"The US is professing support for these countries' rights in those areas. Now, if the US wants to come to support an ally or partner in the South China Sea which is getting pushed around by China, now it has the legal justification to say China's actions are illegal in our view... even though Pompeo has previously indicated these are coercive actions by the Chinese, he probably would not have said they are illegal, now he can,"
南海成為美中最可能直接的引爆點.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/13/politics/south-china-sea-pompeo-announcement/index.html
"1架/1min升空跟1架/10mins升空,是完全不同的概念,讀者自己想像一下,60架全部升空,前者代表第一架滯空了60mins,後者代表600mins,也就是10小時。
呃,還沒發現問題在哪的,問題可大了,因為油箱跟載彈量是固定的,用維基百科的資料,J-15作戰半徑達1200km,但台灣的反艦飛彈射程已經確定超過300km,這還不包含開戰前台灣的艦隊基本上都會進入太平洋。意即,這兩艘解放軍的航母艦隊,他位置要放在哪個地方?
讀者要明白,三三兩兩跑來台灣東部攻擊那叫做射火雞,形成足夠的作戰編隊才有意義,距離跟航程還有油料,這可以繪製成一個作戰時間圖表,很容易知道到底其同一時間可以發揮多少戰力。
這還不算真的開戰時會有戰損,損失到一個階段的航母群會連護衛機的數量都不夠,一個不好被逆襲,說不定艦隊全部覆滅。"
"聯兵營的規模變的更小,那要如何發揚更強大的火力來彌補這個問題。以先進國家的發展經驗,這完全要依賴配合度更高的三軍聯合作戰訓練,由地面部隊的聯絡官,引導陸航的武裝攻擊直升機、空軍的戰機進行火力打擊。
甚至在濱海地區作戰時,還能協調海軍艦艇進行艦炮炮擊或以艦上防空飛彈掩護岸上的部隊。"
"目前採用無人載具進行掃雷主要有兩種,一種是以無人船進入雷區進行掃雷工作,另一種是以傳統船艦在雷區外施放水下掃雷載具。兩種方法各有優缺點,但類似小型無人潛艇的水下掃雷載具,因為能深入水下作業,可以偵測的範圍較廣,處理的水雷種類也較多,是目前最被看好的技術。許多國家都正在全力發展類似的系統。以美國為例,美國海軍才剛剛再加碼投資通用動力公司1,360萬美元,好繼續研發「刀魚」(Knifefish)水下無人掃雷載具。
刀魚水下無人掃雷載具可以配備在各種船艦上,在雷區外施放以後,像小型無人潛艇般的掃雷載具會自己航向雷區,利用載具上配備的聲納系統,偵側水雷的位置,並在辨識水雷種類後,依操作者的選擇,標示水雷位置,好讓船艦可以避開,或是直接引爆摧毀。"
"等於是一架海軍版的MQ-9B升空後,廣達上萬公里海域裡的所有水面船艦位置、種類型號、航向速度,都能立刻一清二楚。讓操作者能快速掌握並監控周邊海域的所有情況,評估威脅程度,擬定作戰計畫,這樣的能力讓海軍版的MQ-9B成為海島國家防禦的重要利器。"
"海軍表示,快速布雷艇為海軍依據敵情威脅與作戰需求籌建,結合現行布雷作戰計畫,有助提高敵艦艇航渡威脅,創造聯合防衛作戰的有利態勢。"
"A venda de 18 torpedos pesados MK-48 ajudará "a manter a estabilidade política, o equilíbrio de forças e o progresso económico da região", defendeu o Departamento de Estado norte-americano, que considera uma prioridade estratégica combater o aumento da influência de Pequim na zona. "
葡萄牙媒體也注意到了台美軍售案的重型魚雷部分.
@perfume63 纽时有些文章左倾味道太浓了
@nil 同感!