## 📉 Russian Economic Agony: Budget Collapse and Paper Victories
While propaganda paints pictures of an "unbreakable economy," the actual figures for April-May 2026 reveal that the Russian financial ship is strictly following the course of the *Moskva* cruiser. Milov breaks down why the oil "doping" is no longer saving the patient.
### 🕳 1. The Budget Hole: 6 Trillion in 4 Months
The Kremlin's main "achievement" is a federal budget deficit of **6 trillion rubles**. This isn't just high; it’s a catastrophe.
* This figure has already surpassed the total deficit for the entire previous year.
* Regional budgets are also "in the red" (forecasted at minus 2 trillion).
* **Diagnosis:** There is no money for both war and social spending simultaneously. The regime's only way out is the printing press, which will inevitably trigger hyperinflation.
### 🛢 2. The Oil Curse: $100 Oil, Empty Pockets
Global oil prices remain at record highs, but the Russian budget isn't feeling it.
* **The Currency Trap:** A strong ruble "eats" the profits when converted.
* **The Fuel Damper:** The state pays hundreds of billions in subsidies to oil companies just to keep gas station prices from exploding immediately. Essentially, it’s moving money from one tattered pocket to another.
* **Sanction Discounts:** The shadow fleet and complex sanction-evasion schemes consume the lion's share of the margins.
### 🍞 3. Retail in a Coma: USSR 2.0
The situation in stores resembles the late Soviet era.
* **Zero Profit:** Market giants (*Magnit*, *X5*) are operating on the brink of loss.
* **Forceful Control:** The FAS (Antimonopoly Service) literally forbids experts from forecasting price hikes under threat of prosecution.
* **Demand:** The population is simply running out of cash. Foot traffic in malls during the May holidays fell by 7%—Russians are shifting to survival mode regarding food.
### 🏗 4. Liquidating Reserves
The National Wealth Fund (NWF) is melting away. Its liquid portion has already dropped below **4 trillion rubles**. At the current deficit rate, these reserves will only last a few months. After that, it’s either total sequestering (cutting costs) or "wiping out" citizens' savings through devaluation.
### 🔥 5. The "Bavovna" Effect on Refineries
Strikes on oil refineries (Tuapse, Kirishi) and terminals haven't collapsed exports entirely yet, but they have created "chronic pain."
* Repair costs are skyrocketing.
* Domestic fuel shortages are fueling inflation.
* Corruption in modernization (the Tuapse refinery case) proved more effective than any sanctions—billions were stolen long before the drones arrived.
**Summary:** The Russian economy is running on "thoughts and prayers" and statistical manipulation. Ahead lies a brutal autumn, a new round of tax hikes, and the inevitable bill for military adventurism.
**A ticket to the Hague for the "bunker man" looks more like a logical conclusion to this economic suicide every day.**