Okay, real talk.
1. There are *unconfirmed* reports of #Prigozhin's plane being shot down by Russian air defense.
Routers quotes "British lawmaker Alicia Kearns, chair of parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee":
> "Reports Russian Air Defence shot down the plane suggests Putin is sending a very loud message."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/reaction-wagner-mercenary-chief-yevgeny-prigozhin-plane-crash-with-no-survivors-2023-08-23/
2. The plane crashed near Kuzhenkino in Tver oblast which is ~50km from Putin's residence in Dolgiye Borody:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolgiye_Borody_(residence)
https://news.sky.com/story/yevgeny-prigozhin-was-wagner-boss-on-plane-that-crashed-near-moscow-what-we-know-so-far-12946087#:~:text=The%20plane%20came%20down%20near,Russia's%20Federal%20Air%20Transport%20Agency.
3. Putin's residence can be expected to be heavily defended from air attacks.
4. Last six days in a row Moscow was getting hit by presumably Ukrainian small drones:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/23/central-moscow-building-hit-by-drone-in-latest-attack-on-russian-capital
👀
It would be pretty ironic if #Prigozhin got shot down *accidentally*, by an air defense unit protecting Putin's residence, because the unit's command was a bit jumpy after six days of drone attacks on Moscow.
flightradar24 claims that there's ~1 plane/hour within ~30km of Ozyorny (I didn't try to figure out more precisely where the crash was) during daylight hours. That coupled with differences in size, speed, and altitude between drones and private jet aircraft make it IMO very unlikely that it was accidental.
@robryk never said it's likely. In fact, I find it most likely that it was shot down on purpose.
Still, I find the mere (if remote) possibility of this scenario pretty interesting.