@skells What do you think all those delegations to Moscow and Kyiv where doing all those months?

@thendrix that's my question

@skells Don't worry with Biden's track record he'll just state it out in a public forum if he lives long enough outside of office. You don't need an audio recording and a signed document like it's a movie. That's how the entire ball got rolling again to begin with...

Trump accidentally tugged on a string that turned out was a lot of neolibs/neocons wearing the same sweater. If Biden kept his mouth shut it wouldn't have been there to pull. The elites choose to undermine their own government and destroy all public trust, which turns out was a shitty choice. In the end they still won't get what they want even after enticing a bear and hoping it would only go half way. Now you see the WEF pulling Putin from their club, and possible end of the petrol dollar with-in a year.

@thendrix where did you see this "offer on the table"?

@skells It's no different than predicting which stocks will outperform in the short-term. There are real values and there are hopes and dreams. If you can divine what price someone will pay for an outcome you can have a confidence in what value that has in an open market.

This issue has been on and off the table for years now, and is no different than watching dominoes fall from NS2 as the Polish missile shield unilateral action the Obama admin decided to open their international policy with... it's mostly the same admin making these moves and they have a small playbook. You see what both sides of the table want, and you see when they fly in and make offers to the meat and butcher. You can figure out how it's going a fair amount. All sides have been very clear about the outcomes they want to the point they're telling you about these meetings and the timing... while also making hints with policy statements in lock step. You're not going to get a smoking gun if that's what you're after.

However after years of hints you get the point, which is why a lot of commentary already had all this baked in... it's not magic everyone guesses the same thing at once. In fact there is a popular video going around from 2015 laying the cards on the table. Russian military plans have been known to a degree for some time as well. They are about to take the gloves off and finish this up in a couple of weeks or less seems to be the likely outcome. Assuming the desired outcome is making the other half neutral. Russia knows if they strike quickly and then relent the governments of the world will just pretend it didn't happen. This is the third time in recent memory after all.

@thendrix Ukrainian neutrality was clearly the asking price, it's just beyond me why it wasn't given earlier.

Events have their own momentum now.