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So after reading a misleading meme on the internet I was compelled to compare the COVID situation in Canada over the past few months to that in the USA. This is what I notice.
The Canadian stock market has crashed by a thousand points since the beginning of the year and COVID cases in Canada have **increased** 700% since mid june... Compared to america where the stock market has **increased** by 3,000 points since the beginning of the year (thatsa 33% increase) and covid cases has **dropped** by more than 50% since the beginning of july.
The issue with lockdowns is they look great to everyone who is too ignorant to understand whats going on, but they devastate the economy and do no good because the second you let up the lock down no one has immunity and the virus spreads like it is new. So in the long run you get hit hard in the wallet AND in terms of the infection. Meanwhile the americans approach may have resulted in more infection early on but fewer in the long term and without damaging the economy along the way.
@freemo Lockdowns are basically useless when used in a blanketed approach. I believe a well planned lockdown when combined with other specifically targeted restrictions, it can be effective. This paper submitted to the WHO in 2014 looks at travel restrictions to limit the spread of influenza. Yes, it's about the flu and travel restrictions, rather than a coronavirus and lockdowns, but it still somewhat applies in my opinion.
https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/92/12/14-135590/en/
The collection of models and studies suggest travel restrictions in general have little to no effect. But the models based on more specific measures seem to be more effective.
In Western Australia, we took a multifaceted approach. We currently have a "hard border" in place, but people can still get in from interstate and international travel via exceptions. Those coming just need to go through a process. That combined with a number of other specific measures and strategies has meant we have done really well and our economy is already bouncing back. We haven't had community transition in ages and all of our cases are those coming in and going through the process. Our version of a "lockdown" was a lockdown of our state regions, rather than a blanketed, hard lockdown. We were only encouraged to limit our movements to what is essential, but there was no law put in place for movement within our state regions.
I think states shouldn't go for a hard lockdown (Victoria, Australia is a "good bad" example. They're experiencing a devastating second wave at the moment.) Depending on population density, points of ingress and egress, among other factors, each state should take specifically planned approaches, unique to that state. So in my own roundabout way, I essentially agree with you. I just add that a better definition of what a lockdown means, depending on how that applies to each state, is the more effective alternative.
