War; potential very, very bad outcomes
Well, it was nice knowing y'all.
Seriously, this is the most stupidly dangerous thing to happen for the better part of a century. At least since the Able Archer Crisis, but more like the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Imagine in 1962, the Soviets had insisted on going through with their placement of nuclear missiles in Cuba (which they had every right to, but non-suicidally chose not to). That is the level of dangerously stupid and irresponsible Biden is being right now.
War; potential very, very bad outcomes
@thriveth
It's not that bad, most importantly because the ATACAMS aren't nuclear armed.
At least one close military watcher states that the decision is unlikely to lead to large reversals because the Ukrainians have too few missiles to decisively overcome Russian countermeasures, so they think it's mainly a symbolic act.
For whom it is intended is less clear, but it being Biden it's probably at least largely to bolster his legacy.
War; potential very, very bad outcomes
@tobychev Yeah except the Russians have previously stated very clearly that they will see this as an act of war from whoever provides these weapons.
In the light of the other things you list (which I completely agree with), I cling on to hope that they will be more level-headed than our side seems to be. But it will definitely mean an even stronger escalation in Ukraine (more attacks on Kiev, Kharkiv and Sumy). It's so bloody idiotic, it will help no one but the military industrial complex.
Honestly, to me it mainly seems that Biden is doing this in a petty effort to spite Trump and sabotage his (already ridiculous) claims to be able to "make a deal to end the war in 24 hours".
War; potential very, very bad outcomes
@thriveth
Well, the impact on that declaration on the overall Russian position of who they are fighting against is not very straightforward since they have already said at various times in 2022 that they are at war with NATO...
Further, Mark Galleoti claims that it is the "at war with NATO" view that explains why Russia is running a low level sabotage campaign in the West.
So to me it is simply not clear what "officially at war" would mean, especially as the concerned countries don't border it and are already in open economic war with Russia.
As for level-headedness, Putin is the one who launched the whole insane invasion in the first place, so the track record is mixed to say the least. Thought they are so physically constrained in capacity that there's not likely to be much consequence of the declaration for that reason alone.
War; potential very, very bad outcomes
@tobychev I suspect that the ambiguity is by design, but that does not make me feel much safer tbh.
It's pretty wild to roll the dice on this one given that it is highly unlikely to change the strategic reality. Gives very Reagan-ey "playing nuclear chicken with the Soviets" vibes. I kinda hoped I wouldn't have to relive that phase.