@MugsysRapSheet
Poles are nonsensical. I think only magats answer the phone. I don't, hence I have never in my life spoken to a pollster. 🤣
@JudyOlo
Cornell Belcher on #MtP made an observation I've made myself:
"Before he went to trial, T****'s support was around 46%. During his trial, his support is around 46%. After his trial, his support will be around 46%. Those who support him already now what kind of man he is and believe his #DeepState nonsense. He's not picking up any converts. His floor is also his ceiling.
#Biden's #poll numbers are following the more traditional path where support for him will grow as November nears."
46% of REPUBLICANS, which comprise about 1/3 of all voters. Independents and Democrats make up the balance.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/the-partisanship-and-ideology-of-american-voters/
So he really needs Independents in order to win, and those guys do not like DJT. Even those who lean Republican.
@ralfmaximus bingo.
That's why Trump has this ceiling that so many people miss or misunderstand, and why projections based on historical campaigns don't apply cleanly to Trump.
I hear SO MANY making projections that follow trendlines into the independent crowd without realizing that so many will not vote for Trump under any circumstances.
Many conservatives are happily optimistic because they think that once independents compare #Trump and #Biden, why, they'll obviously prefer Trump's policies and they state of the world under Trump.
They don't understand that so many will refuse to make that comparison in the first place, will refuse to even consider voting for Trump no matter what.
It's both sad and infuriating.
@ralfmaximus @volkris @JudyOlo
I live in #Texas, so my vote for president has not once in my entire life helped decide an election. 😒
I live in Georgia and against all odds we turned the state purple/blue in 2020. Biden won here! Miracles can and do happen; don't give up.
@MugsysRapSheet @ralfmaximus @volkris@qoto.org
Tell me about it. Try Louisiana. As best I can tell, we don't even exist. 🌊🌊🌊🌊
@JudyOlo @ralfmaximus
Well, you/Louisiana DID elect a Democratic governor in recent memory.
@MugsysRapSheet @ralfmaximus
Yes, a blip. I still remember standing in line for hours to vote for Edwin Edwards. The famous "vote for the crook" election. Today, I think Duke would actually win. God help us 😔😔😔😥
https://www.nola.com/300/david-duke-vs-edwin-edwards-a-1991-election-reflection/article_e0a91c9b-122a-5150-8b78-81ffd66487bc.html
@volkris @MugsysRapSheet @JudyOlo
I actually prefer the fear mongering to complacency. Vote as if your life depends on it, because this time it really is deadly important.
I was complacent in 2016. Assumed HRC was a lock and didn't vote. I regret that decision every day. Plus, a landslide makes it harder to claim anything was stolen, even if a few red states fall into chaos on election night.