(1) I have read a couple of posts expressing frustration and anger with our Chancellor Scholz' position not to deliver Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine at this point. Most of them were fair criticism, some weren't. I feel like there are some specifically German aspects to this debate that are missing in the international perspective so I'll start a thread and fill them in. Hopefully I can shine some light on why Germany is acting the way it is and how we can change this together.
(2) First off some stuff about me to get all of this in proper context too. I am a member of the German Green party and I share their position that we need to support Ukraine much more substantially, including Leopard 2 tanks. I am also not trying to defend all of Scholz' actions, some of them are pretty shitty. Like starting to count our tanks now instead of a year ago. That's just bad management. So if you are angry or frustrated with our position on this issue: So am I.
(3) Now people complain how Scholz is not showing leadership and courage. That's true but only one aspect. The fact is that he was elected for exactly the style of leadership that he shows right now. Wait a while, see how things go and make decisions when the pressure becomes untenable. That's how Angela Merkel governed this country for 16 years, this style of government is very popular and Scholz was elected because he is similar to Merkel in that respect.
(4) When Scholz hesitates to deliver tanks, he's also enacting what's democratic consensus in Germany. Recent polls show that only 46% of the Germans are in favor of delivering tanks, 43% are against it. It's not only Scholz' weak leadership, he always has an eye on the polls. That's his job, that's how democracy works and IMHO the German people is to blame for that, not only Scholz. https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend/deutschlandtrend-3277.html
(4) Now why are so many Germans sceptical when it comes to tanks for Ukraine? It's not hostility towards Ukraine, only a handfull of insignificant extremists think that we should not support Ukraine at all. Most sceptics have arguments that I may not share but have to acknowledge. Like the fact that it is consensus in Germany not to deliver weapons to warzones. It is deeply rooted in our society and usually rightfully so, so changing this mindset is going to take time, even if I don't like it.
(5) Our history is of course also a common argument and I have to admit that the sound of "German tanks in Ukraine fighting Russians" gives me an uneasy feeling too. Usually I share the belief that no war must ever again come from Germany, but in this instance the better lesson to learn from WW2 is "There is a point where talking to dictators is not going to cut it anymore and you need to shoot back to save yourself". That's what I tell people but that's a very sensitive debate.
(6) And last but not least, many of the 43% are really afraid of the war escalating. This is something that we should not wipe aside. I don't think, Putin will escalate this to a nuclear stage but nobody can be certain about this. Going slow with weapon deliveries and testing how Putin reacts gradually may be a smart way to go in order to avoid nuclear escalation. That's not typically German, the Americans haven't delivered battle tanks either for this very reason.
(7) One very practical aspect that prevents tank deliveries is the pathetic state of German military. When the war broke out, the general of the German army, Alfons Mais said that we can't spare anything because the Bundeswehr isn't capable of defending Germany to begin with. We have supplies for two weeks of war ourselves. Every piece of equipment we send to Ukraine is making this untenable state even worse. This is the result of decades of mismanagement and won't get better anytime soon.
@brudibrau but, the recent discussion/news has been about Germany blocking OTHER countries from sending their own German-made tanks? Some of these arguments still apply of course, but the “how will we defend ourselves?” is confusing me, as an outsider to European geopolitics. Were you relying on Poland to defend you with those tanks or?
@AmberWavesofFlame (2) As for the other countries: Poland has always been talking a big game about giving Ukraine tanks and Germany blocking that but the fact is they sent us the formal request on Tuesday and we granted it right away so I don't know what they are bitching about. Just some nationalist re-election campaign. I love Poland but that government PiSes me off.
@brudibrau ah, thank you. Lot of (English-language) media that gave me the impression Germany was refusing to let *anybody’s* Leopards go to Ukraine for days because they were afraid Russia would be mad at them about it. I’m wholly sympathetic to concerns about emptying your own ramparts for someone else’s war, but blocking even smaller countries from doing it seemed much harder to justify. Thank you for alerting me that there’s more sides to that narrative.
@brudibrau (The US talks a lot of shit, but we’re barely cleaning out our basement; none of our contributions are materially hurting our own defense capacity and support would crater if we even approached that point. So no shade on hesitating there.)
