I think the massive COVID-19 epidemic in China is really quite worrying. A confluence of really bad factors:

- low vaccine uptake in older people
- no existing immunity
- long time since vaccine rollout
- very low booster rates

In addition, the government is still quite clearly lying about their death figures, which is problematic to say the least #COVID19 #China #epidemiology

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@gidmk
I'm estimating around as bad as Hong Kong, so 0.2% excess death rate. 90%CI 1.5-4 million dead, 40 million needing intensive care, more than that with long-COVID.

Maybe was inevitable over a long time period, but not this many this fast. Hospital collapse risk.

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