So I read that China’s naval force is becoming powerful.
Sometime between 2015 and 2020, China’s Navy crossed a critical threshold: it fielded more battle force ships than the U.S. Navy, making it the world’s largest navy numerically. Today, at around 360 hulls, it exceeds its American rival by more than sixty warships.
The article goes on to summarise the recent ship-building achievements by the China’s naval forces. It’s clear, the force-projecting machine is on the rise. This is especially worrying in the context of the regional waters around China, especially South China Sea disputes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea).
This has implications in regard to the rise of hi-tech as a strategic asset: production of computer processors is becoming a strategic and vital military issue. C.f., e.g., the insightful article by Ben Thompson here: https://stratechery.com/2020/chips-and-geopolitics/. It boils down to this observation: chips are everywhere and especially so in advanced weapons. You can’t win a war without chips. Who owns chip production, owns a strategic resource and it provides them a freedom to operate in military theatre.
The most advanced chip production facilities are owned by TSMC and reside in Taiwan. The fact that EU and USA are becoming disadvantaged in chip production (it’s of course way more nuanced, but generally true) is a strategic military planning concern. China’s growing ability to project naval power and to capture Taiwan if it decides so are, in this sense, problematic.
There’s one more interesting observation:
More broadly still, it offers modern history’s sole example of a “land” power successfully becoming a “sea” power and sustaining that status over time.
Indeed, as well argued by e.g., G. Friedman in The Next 100 Years, China is a land power. It’s limited by it access to the Pacific Ocean by all the islands it needs to navigate to get to the Ocean. So regardless of their fleet size, their capability to project power beyond this region is limited as far as they do not control the whole archipelago between Japan and Indonesia. So far, they don’t. Their growing naval capability, however, potentially threatens that to change. That well explains the growing USA obsession with China and Taiwan issues: threaten the control of Pacific Ocean by USA and you get their attention.
This is one of the slowly moving games played out there, curious to see further developments in the coming decades.
Re Taiwan: clearly, that is the strategic goal. It can only be prevented by a mightier power, US in this case, projecting itself into the region. I’d say, Sauron’s eye (i.e., US) is looking in the right direction in this case. Any military intervention on the side of China risks a hot war and that is not something China takes lightly against US. I think the balance will go on using economic leverage - as Trump started and Biden will, no doubt, continue. I am no way an expert on this, but since China’s development seems to heavily depend on exports, it seems to me that the US (and EU) has a long long lever there. But what do I know?
Personally, I think how this plays out over the next decades will be the story of our generation.
Some (like Friedman in the book I mentioned previously) think there’s a good reason to bet on China’s implosion/reversal to their introvert nature and future closing off. I find the argument why quite interesting, but have not enough good information to judge its merit.
Britain. France. Germany. Holland. Canada. All are sending warships to the South China Sea in growing “pushback” against Beijing.
Interesting developments in South China Sea: https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/british-and-canadian-warships-invade-south-china-sea-as-tensions-escalate-with-beijing/news-story/41cc91af2af8b5ec3126712d09fef454
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