In case what’s missing from your life is a Lawfare deep dive analysis of the Trump indictment.
https://www.lawfareblog.com/united-states-america-v-donald-j-trump-and-waltine-nauta
@benjaminwittes what is missing is the minimum trump can be penalized if found guilty. Which is what I suspect will be the case.
@JonKramer You can't really know that without knowing what counts he would be convicted on. It's a guidelines question and the specifics matter a lot.
@JonKramer These statutes don't have mandatory minimums.
@benjaminwittes so the minimum is zero days in prison. I wonder how that happened, that those are what the DOJ decided to go with.
@JonKramer the minimum is zero for the vast majority of crimes. Relatively few crimes have mandatory minimums.
@JonKramer we published some data on sentencing in similar cases on @lawfare today. The average is in the 50 month range but that’s very rough as the comparable cases aren’t that comparable.
@benjaminwittes @lawfare what are the odds that NONE of the indictments would have a minimum? I am highly skeptical that this wasn't by design. Especially with the famous law signed by trump with a 5 year minimum that seems taylor made for one of these charges...
@benjaminwittes @lawfare really. I have an exceptionally hard time believing that. This just seems to be a plan. Why include a spot on an indictment stating a minimum if the odds that there isn't one is so high? Why not pick a charge with a minimum jail time? Why wait 2 years for what amounts to a fine?
Maybe I lack trust in the system... but why should I trust it?
@JonKramer @lawfare odds are overwhelming