Many people think that “history doesn’t repeat itself” so they dislike #models because “they are based on the #past and thus not useful for identifying all the #complexity associated with the #changes that will happen in the #future.”

This is most likely because they think models are for producing #forecasts, while the best use of models is, instead, to plan future #experiments.

#Predictions are often made as statements about what will occur in the future, while they should be only statements about #expectations of what may most probably happen in the (most immediate) future.

Predictions based on historical data define the boundary of the narrow conical “#possibility_space”, the “volume” of which rapidly increases with longer prediction times.