頗懷疑這時候放出金融穩定法風聲,是為了接下來的違約潮與更嚴苛的資金管制做準備。前者可能是不認帳或轉移損失,後者可能是將各方面資金限制檯面化降低流動。

"中國銀行央行副行長劉桂平也在3月的1篇文章敦促改革,他指出,中國的金融規則過於分散,可以借鑑美國的《多德—弗蘭克法案》及其他主要經濟體的金融改革經驗。劉桂平認為,中國需要一致的金融穩定法。

劉桂平已向全國人大呈交提案,並建議在條件成熟時盡快出台。但北京威諾律師事務所合夥人Yang Zhaoquan指出,完成這項法案可能得花上3到5年的時間,他稱,由於風險事件接連出現,不僅損害市場,還波及金融及社會穩定性,因此迫切需要更多且強大法律工具。

《彭博》指出,像共產黨這樣執著於「掌控」的政府,在監管金融機構的行為似乎不太一致,一方面是疏忽對華融的監管,導致該公司爆發財務危機,一方面卻又警告像螞蟻集團這樣的公司影響力過大。"

ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaking

中國巨型企業遭遇國有化威脅的同時, 逃過倒閉潮的倖存小型企業則面臨金流不足的危機.

"Close to 19% of China’s small businesses shut down last year, compared with 6.7% in 2019, according to a study released in March by Tsinghua University involving more than 50,000 companies nationwide."

"While the insolvency rate is expected to be better this year, many companies still face serious cash-flow constraints. A survey of more than 10,000 small businesses released in March by Peking University and Ant Group Co. found that 15% have sufficient cash flow to sustain operations for six months or longer, down from 19% in the third quarter of 2020, though some expect revenue to pick up as the year progresses."

wsj.com/articles/for-chinas-sm

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螞蟻這種鉅企都讓外資股東面臨相當風險了,遑論其他。

"The global investors, which also included private-equity firms, sovereign-wealth funds and pension plans, were on the cusp of reaping a massive windfall last fall. Now, it is far from certain that those investors will end up making a profit and they can’t easily sell their investments until the company revives its plans to go public again, which could be years away. "

wsj.com/articles/fidelity-halv

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螞蟻這隻金雞母被取卵後的損傷統計:

[ For the quarter ended in March, Alibaba’s net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was 5.5 billion yuan, equivalent to $836 million, compared with a net income of 3.2 billion yuan in the same period a year earlier. Its sales rose 64% to 187.4 billion yuan, equivalent to about $28.6 billion, beating analyst expectations.

In April, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation levied a $2.8 billion fine against Alibaba, equal to 4% of the company’s domestic annual sales. The regulator said its investigation, launched in December, found that the company punished certain merchants who sold goods both on Alibaba and on rival platforms, a practice known as “er xuan yi”—literally, “choose one out of two.”]

wsj.com/articles/alibaba-logs-

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佔前兩年比特幣挖礦逾六成的中國要禁掉這條洗錢通道了:

"根據公告,中國金融機構、支付機構等會員單位,將不得使用虛擬貨幣為產品和服務定價,不得承保與虛擬貨幣相關的保險業務或將虛擬貨幣納入保險責任範圍,不得直接或間接為客戶提供其他與虛擬貨幣相關的服務,如註冊、交易、清算、結算等。

該公告還呼籲消費者加強風險意識,樹立正確的投資觀念,不參與加密貨幣炒作活動,以防個人財產及權益受損。3家協會也將加強對會員單位的自律監督,若有發現違規,將依法採取通報、暫停會員權利、取消會員資格等處分措施,並向金融管理部門報告,若涉嫌違法犯罪,有關線索將移送公安機關。"

ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaking

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怎麼甚麼都用舉報解決...

"《金融時報》披露,內蒙古稱,可能會安排電話熱線,個人可以舉報可疑的礦工,作為「全面清理和關閉」挖礦行動的一部分。

報導稱,中國對加密貨幣的監管方法在近幾個月來成本激增,比其他國家更為極端,為此,內蒙古自治區發改委發布,全面清理關停虛擬貨幣「挖礦」專案。自治區能耗雙控應急指揮部辦公室特設立虛擬貨幣「挖礦」企業舉報平臺,全面受理關於虛擬貨幣「挖礦」企業問題舉報。"

ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaking

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一個月後還是得找底下的來堵破洞。

"近日人行有關部門就提供加密貨幣交易炒作提供服務的問題,約談工商銀行、農業銀行、建設銀行、郵儲銀行、興業銀行和支付寶等業者。"

cna.com.tw/news/acn/2021062102

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"中國人民銀行出手打壓, 比特幣應聲大跌. 中國除了力推人民幣數位化, 對去中心的, 不具名的數位虛擬幣, 更是戒慎恐懼.

跨界思考家范疇指出, 中美金融貨幣戰爭的嚴肅性, 遠大於真槍實彈的軍事戰爭. 而美國帶頭的產業鏈去中國化, 疫苗外交之爭, 加上外商和民間企業. 不再輕易落入中國「套養殺」的陷阱, 日本產經新聞台北支局長矢板明夫就挑明點出, 中國經濟四大馬達都熄火了, 前景很不樂觀。"

youtube.com/watch?v=jnsHR4az37

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"《彭博》報導,戴加祐週二在巴黎的1場活動中表示,風險在於歐洲不僅在加強歐元國際作用的方面失去動力,甚至連維護歐元都會有困難,並說數位人民幣的挑戰同時也是地緣政治問題。

戴加祐提到所謂的「三角風險」,除了歐洲以外的央行數位貨幣,另2項為現金使用減少、加密資產興起。

戴加祐敦促歐洲的政策制定者迅速行動,與中國採取同等努力、找尋更具創新性的支付方案,ECB必須研究不管是批發或通用形式的潛在數位歐元,尤其後者對跨境交易非常重要。「否則我們的貨幣主權可能會受到侵蝕,這是無法容忍的。」"

ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaking

鄭州災後無電無法交易窘況也許無法阻止數位人民幣的全面施行, 但找出其他通貨作為支付預備可能會是韭菜們的現實解決方式, 無論那個取代的通貨是香菸還是白酒.

"While the 16-page document didn’t mention Alipay and WeChat Pay by name, it noted the dwindling use of cash in China—a result of the two networks’ dominance. Since Alipay pioneered digital payments more than a decade ago, followed by WeChat, the population has come to rely heavily on mobile payments, all but abandoning cash in some big cities."

wsj.com/articles/chinas-digita

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很含糊又低調的說明貨幣政策:

"China will improve eCNY's privacy protection and anti-counterfeiting feature and increase its interoperability with existing payments tools, Yi said."

"Yi also said eCNY aims to meet the need of domestic retail payments as cross-border digital payments involve more complicated issues, such as anti-money laundering."

news.yahoo.com/china-advance-c

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彭博的親中傾向最近明顯收斂些了~

"對習近平而言,夢魘般的情況就是走上日本老路。日本也曾被譽為美國潛在的挑戰者,卻在30年前一蹶不振。若改革失敗、國際孤立、金融危機等因素結合爆發,中國可能沒還沒攻破山頭,就得被迫止步。

還有一種很對懷疑論者胃口的可能性:如果中國官方國內生產毛額(GDP)數據誇大,全球第1和第2大經濟體的差距可能比表面看起來更大,縮小的步伐也會更慢。

長期來看,3個因素決定了經濟成長速度,其一是勞動力規模,其二是資本存量,最後是生產力,或者也可以從前兩者結合的效率來觀察。

而在這3個領域,中國都面臨著不確定的未來。"

cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202107073

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