頗懷疑這時候放出金融穩定法風聲，是為了接下來的違約潮與更嚴苛的資金管制做準備。前者可能是不認帳或轉移損失，後者可能是將各方面資金限制檯面化降低流動。
"中國銀行央行副行長劉桂平也在3月的1篇文章敦促改革，他指出，中國的金融規則過於分散，可以借鑑美國的《多德—弗蘭克法案》及其他主要經濟體的金融改革經驗。劉桂平認為，中國需要一致的金融穩定法。
劉桂平已向全國人大呈交提案，並建議在條件成熟時盡快出台。但北京威諾律師事務所合夥人Yang Zhaoquan指出，完成這項法案可能得花上3到5年的時間，他稱，由於風險事件接連出現，不僅損害市場，還波及金融及社會穩定性，因此迫切需要更多且強大法律工具。
《彭博》指出，像共產黨這樣執著於「掌控」的政府，在監管金融機構的行為似乎不太一致，一方面是疏忽對華融的監管，導致該公司爆發財務危機，一方面卻又警告像螞蟻集團這樣的公司影響力過大。"
中國巨型企業遭遇國有化威脅的同時, 逃過倒閉潮的倖存小型企業則面臨金流不足的危機.
"Close to 19% of China’s small businesses shut down last year, compared with 6.7% in 2019, according to a study released in March by Tsinghua University involving more than 50,000 companies nationwide."
"While the insolvency rate is expected to be better this year, many companies still face serious cash-flow constraints. A survey of more than 10,000 small businesses released in March by Peking University and Ant Group Co. found that 15% have sufficient cash flow to sustain operations for six months or longer, down from 19% in the third quarter of 2020, though some expect revenue to pick up as the year progresses."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-chinas-small-businesses-life-is-still-far-from-normal-11619953204
螞蟻這種鉅企都讓外資股東面臨相當風險了，遑論其他。
"The global investors, which also included private-equity firms, sovereign-wealth funds and pension plans, were on the cusp of reaping a massive windfall last fall. Now, it is far from certain that those investors will end up making a profit and they can’t easily sell their investments until the company revives its plans to go public again, which could be years away. "
螞蟻這隻金雞母被取卵後的損傷統計:
[ For the quarter ended in March, Alibaba’s net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was 5.5 billion yuan, equivalent to $836 million, compared with a net income of 3.2 billion yuan in the same period a year earlier. Its sales rose 64% to 187.4 billion yuan, equivalent to about $28.6 billion, beating analyst expectations.
In April, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation levied a $2.8 billion fine against Alibaba, equal to 4% of the company’s domestic annual sales. The regulator said its investigation, launched in December, found that the company punished certain merchants who sold goods both on Alibaba and on rival platforms, a practice known as “er xuan yi”—literally, “choose one out of two.”]
外媒注意到了中國監管機構對數據庫應用獲利的壓縮與鼓勵舉報的政策:
"The admonitions have so far stopped short of demanding complete corporate overhauls, other than for Ant. For some companies, placating Chinese authorities is a matter of tweaking some app features, while others could suffer more if much of their profits rely on data collection and sharing, according to employees of five of the app companies targeted by regulators last month."
壟斷數據資產的政策觀(被資產化的韭菜數據流只能是滋養黨的電流) 與進一步截斷大額資金外流管道(監管境外可變利益實體的企圖)
"In essence, the law shows that such digital records should be considered a national asset, which can be tapped or restricted according to the state’s needs."
"... the cyberspace administration is also working with China’s top securities regulator and other ministries in revising longstanding rules governing so-called variable interest entities, the people say. Such corporate structures, known as VIEs, have enabled foreign investors to buy into Chinese companies in technology and other sensitive sectors without outright owning voting shares in these firms.
.... One option being considered by the regulators is to require companies using the VIE structure to seek regulatory approval before selling shares in foreign markets "
滴滴被下架的後續影響:
"Bytedance, whose shareholders include Sequoia Capital and KKR & Co., is one of the world’s most valuable startups. Unlike Didi, which had chalked up losses for years, Bytedance’s financials meant it didn’t have to hurry to list, "
一頭霧水：這個罰款金額與要求騰訊放棄的權利根本不成比例啊。
“根據《CNBC》報導，中國反壟斷監管機構向騰訊下令，要求放棄旗下的國際唱片公司獨家音樂許可權，並向騰訊罰款。
外媒消息指出，國家市場監督管理總局（SAMR）24日以「騰訊違規收購中國音樂」，對騰訊處以50萬元人民幣（約216萬台幣）的罰款。”
外商遊戲託鎖國的福, 損失有限, 真正輸家還是韭國自家遊戲產業, 可喜可樂~
"The impact on U.S. game makers from the government’s decision is expected to be somewhat limited, given their indirect exposure to the Chinese market. Beijing treats videogames as publications and imposes its censorship rules on videogames before they can be sold in China."
這廿年來的壓制遊戲產業政策以保護兒童名義打擊遊戲產業的荒謬在於兒童用戶對這產業貢獻不到5%收益:
"The Chinese government has been restricting videogame usage for at least 20 years, says Lisa Cosmas Hanson, president of Niko Partners, a firm in Campbell, Calif., that researches the Asian gaming industry. Yet the number of gamers in China rose from 120 million in 2010 to 727 million last year, according to Niko.
Less than 5% of Chinese videogame revenue, on average, comes from children. Players of all ages have sidestepped China’s previous restrictions on videogames by using such dodges as private computer networks, logging on with fake identification or getting another person to sign in for them."
兩年後的中國網路遊戲產業難得有一絲火苗能苟延殘喘:
"Even absent confirmation that the proposal had been killed, the stock prices of China’s two largest video game companies jumped on Tuesday, with Tencent rising 3.7 percent and Netease rising 6 percent, more than the overall market.
即便無法確認草案已遭否決，中國最大兩家遊戲公司的股價仍在週二迎來攀升，騰訊上漲3.7%，網易上漲6%，漲幅超大盤整體水平。"
https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20240124/china-online-video-games/zh-hant/dual/
WSJ對騰訊的風吹草動跟進很快欸!
"At some of the state-run companies, the transition from Weixin to other apps could be gradual, people familiar with the matter said. Some companies have asked employees to move work-related conversations to other platforms, they said. Those include the companies’ internal-messaging platforms, DingTalk—Alibaba’s chat app largely for enterprise—and Tencent’s WeCom, they said."
騰訊這隻金雞母繼續設法瘦身避風頭中:
"Last month, Tencent unwound an even larger corporate investment when it distributed 457 million shares of JD.com Inc. to its own shareholders in the form of a dividend. Those shares in JD.com, an e-commerce company, were worth about $16.4 billion at the time. Analysts said that the move might have been a response to risks posed by an aggressive regulatory stance by China’s government.
Chinese technology companies have been facing government pressure related to anticompetitive behavior and privacy issues, part of a campaign Beijing has said is intended to get the companies to serve public interests better.
Tencent was among the businesses targeted by the government in an effort to rein in their use of big data in providing financial services."
對外說法也很乾脆讓大家心知肚明:
"騰訊昨在官網發出聲明稿指出，將減持冬海集團1449萬2751股A類股份，騰訊在冬海持股將從21.3%減為18.7%；騰訊所持有投票權預計將減到10%以下。騰訊擬長期維持在冬海絕大部分股權，並持續保持現有業務合作關係。騰訊將受限於禁售期，在未來6個月內不可進一步出售東海的股份。
該份聲明稿表示，這次交易是為了提供資源以支持其他投資和社會責任項目（例如：慈善事業）。據表示，去年8月，騰訊將用於「社會責任」項目的資金增加了一倍，達157億美元。"
金雞母吐金累計:
"騰訊去年8月投入500億人民幣資金，啟動共同富裕專項計劃，將深入結合自身的數位和科技能力，在鄉村振興、低收入人群增收、基層醫療體系完善、教育均衡發展等民生領域提供持續助力。若把去年4月的500億人民幣算進去，騰訊已為「共同富裕」累計投入1000億人民幣資金。
騰訊去年Q3合併營收年增僅13.5%，達1423.7億人民幣，低於外界預期，也是上市以來最慢速的成長。"
翻白眼: 早晚要撤，當然是早撤早安心。
"《彭博》報導，美港中概股因中國一系列的監管措施，股價殺到快見骨，連帶使得中國內地股市也跟著遭追殺，迫使中國官媒發表一系列文章，暗示股市已經跌過頭，部分分析師更推測，中國政府基金已開始進場干預，盼止息市場恐慌性賣壓。
為了緩解國際投資者的擔憂，知情人士透露，中國證監會周三（28）晚間急召國際投資機構解釋，這次匆忙安排的電話會議與會者主要是國際銀行，由中國證監會副主席方星海主持，還要求匿名討論。"
一場可疑火災燒出的新稻草人：
「最近在中國股市引發極大震撼的話題，就是中國平安遭證監會調查的傳聞，據悉是中國平安的房地產投資問題，但平安已否認此事，卻難以平息馬雲這把火，是否已燒到中國平安董事長馬明哲身上的猜測。
紐時曾在2012年長文披露溫家寶家族崛起，文中提及溫出任副總理後，其家人透過各式各樣的投資總共累積了至少27億美元的財富，而溫家最大一筆財富的來源，就是平安保險上市募資前的投資。」
目前看過對網路時代的中國抑商政策最明白之理解了:
[ “Alliances with businessmen were temporary as part of the Party’s goal of total societal control,” Mr. Shum writes in his book. “Once we were no longer needed—to build the economy, invest overseas, or help restrict freedoms in Hong Kong—we, too, would become the enemy.” ]
終究還是把經濟問題當政治問題處理。
"華爾街日報報導，中國9月26日突然發布通告，中央第8輪「巡視」將對中國人民銀行、銀保監會、証證監會、外匯管理局、中國投資、國家開發銀行、中國進出口銀行、中國農業發展銀行、中國工商銀行、中國農業銀行、中國銀行、中國建設銀行、交通銀行、中國中信集團、中國光大集團股、中國人民保險集團、中國人壽保險（集團）、中國太平保險集團、中國出口信用保險公司、上海証券交易所、深圳証券交易所、中國華融、中國長城資產管理、中國東方資產管理、中國信達資產管理等25家金融單位「黨組織」開展常規「巡視」。
報導指出，從10月開始，中央紀律檢查委員會的反腐調查人員已經進駐 25 個金融監管機構及銀行的辦公室，審查這些監管機構及銀行的貸款、投資和監管文件，並要求回答某些交易或決定。任何被發現「誤入歧途」的實體都會受到處分，以徹底掃除任何「政治偏差」"
好吧，市場等著被上下沖洗吧。
"The financial-sector scrutiny comes as Beijing is also trying to address the economy’s dependence on debt-fueled construction sprees, which is prompting turmoil in China’s property sector. By expanding his economic campaign, Mr. Xi risks unleashing dynamics that could severely cut into growth in coming months."
日經這篇從親美派被冷待的切入點還滿有趣的:
"習近平對美觀點已和有大量改革意識的北京清大經濟管理學院顧問委員會格格不入，迥異於二○一二年接掌中共總書記時的尊敬態度。該委員會榮譽主席為前中國國務院總理朱鎔基，成員包括馬雲、鴻海集團創辦人郭台銘、前美國財長鮑爾森、凱雷投資集團共同創辦人魯班斯坦，被視為美中溝通背後關鍵管道。習近平重心現已轉到國有企業領域，中國坊間盛傳朱鎔基對習經濟政策有嚴厲批評。"
https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOGM025W10S1A101C2000000/
兩年後加速倒車:
"Under a restructuring plan unveiled at this year’s legislative session, however, Mr. Xi is returning the PBOC to the pre-Zhu Rongji model, abolishing the regional arms and setting up local branches in more than 30 localities. An upshot, say officials close to the PBOC: the central bank likely will be beholden not only to the party’s power center but also to local party chiefs, another step in a series under Mr. Xi that have eroded the autonomy of China’s central bank."
這樣會令金融資本營運更加低效, 太好了:
"China’s anti-corruption officials warned bankers in February that it would “investigate and deal with the people who neglect the party’s leadership.” They directed the finance executives to embrace the party’s values and avoid emulating what they see as the West’s singular focus on money."
https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20230428/china-banker-crackdown/zh-hant/dual/
中國金融業的資本適足率弱點:
"Chinese banks, relative to their global peers, aren’t that well capitalized to start with. And a recession would deplete that capital significantly, as stress tests the IMF conducted on banks around the world illustrate. For China, the IMF simulated an adverse scenario in which growth averages 1% instead of 5% for three years and property values decline. The result: Chinese banks’ capital ratios would plummet from 11% last year to 7.1% in 2025, the worst of any region under the stress tests."
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/dont-rule-out-a-financial-crisis-in-china-ed048ef9?mod=hp_lead_pos3
看來中國今年金融控制照舊:
"華爾街日報報導，出現何為「中國公司」的難題源於中國證監會去年3月實施的境外上市備案新規，要求公司在上市前進行備案。如果一家公司一半以上的收入、利潤或資產在中國大陸，無論其總部在哪裡，中國證監會都希望看到相關備案。
中國證監會還要求主要在中國大陸展開營商活動的公司、高層管理人員在中國出生或主要居住在中國的公司提交備案。
若公司的中國身份不明確，中國證監會採取一種「實質重於形式」的做法，從而使「中國公司」這個定義可以有廣泛的解釋"
中國證監會這種模糊定義的長臂管轄有助於外資進一步脫鉤中國經濟(?
https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/the-china-conundrum-facing-wall-street-banks-65433134?page=1
中國的長臂管轄也會令此類跨國收購遇到國安疑慮:
"目前還不清楚京東會如何處置Currys的門店，換句話說，就是只專註於倉庫建設，以配合其近期的擴張。京東一直在逐步建立其在歐洲的物流網絡，其房地產部門於2022年在英國收購了一個36.1萬平方英尺的倉庫，這是它在英國的第一個倉庫。
在英國200億英鎊（約合250億美元）的電器市場中，京東擁有約四分之一的市場份額，運營一家以商店為基礎的公司將代表着在線專業公司京東的轉變，這筆交易為其提供了一條潛在的捷徑，無需在營銷和品牌建設上花費數億美元。"
外資跑得差不多了~
"Deals for Chinese start-ups that included U.S. investors declined 88 percent between 2021 and 2023, from $47 billion to $5.6 billion, according to PitchBook, which tracks start-ups.
跟蹤初創企業的PitchBook的數據顯示，在2021年至2023年期間，包括美國投資者在內面向中國初創企業的交易減少了88%，從470億美元降至56億美元。"
https://cn.nytimes.com/technology/20240221/silicon-valley-vc-china/zh-hant/dual/
今天看到這則有趣了: 陸家嘴姿態敢這麼硬莫非是政治秀嗎?
"中媒表示，透過層層股權發現，蘇鋼集團背後的最終實際控股公司，為中國平安。"
小翠這集把陸家嘴與蘇鋼乃至於被攔胡的北大方正之間說得比較清楚:
@Perfume 反党集团的小把戏 逃不过习近平的手掌心 定于一尊 大陆体系 世界大战 人口减半 势在必行！
@Perfume 人工挤泡（其实是冻结泡沫更恰当）的史无前例的大实验，看看效果如何。
CNBC的報導連結有提及騰訊佔了中國音樂庫八成資源：
“Following that acquisition, Tencent owns more than 80% of exclusive music library resources, giving the company an advantage over its competitors as it is able to reach more exclusive deals with copyright holders, SAMR said in a statement.”
https://is.gd/gdxHxg