"中國在東南亞的長期目標，就是要成為最具主導性的強權（the dominant power），並使所有東南亞國家成為事實上的附庸。這會是一種具有中國特色的「芬蘭化」（Finlandization with Chinese characteristics）。要讓東南亞「芬蘭化」，必得中立化（neutralizing）、先發制人（preempting）、威懾（deterring）和抵制（resisting）該區域對中國的任何批評，並且默許中國對南海主權的主張。"
美國要扭轉這種芬蘭化中國影響力的吃力點在於東南亞政治體質本就介於民主與獨裁之間搖擺動盪:
"At a deeper level, Southeast Asian and American perceptions diverge to varying degrees on the question of exactly what threat China poses. While it fears a future of Chinese hegemony, the region has little appetite for the predominant U.S. view of its competition with China, as part of a global battle between democracy and authoritarianism, a framing that was echoed in the AUKUS announcement."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/what-does-the-new-aukus-alliance-mean-for-southeast-asia/
這篇則點出東南亞國家暗地支持AUKUS但同時不表態以免變成夾心餅乾:
"most Southeast Asian governments would learn to live with the agreement – even if not, like the Philippines, actively embracing it – and turn it to their advantage. (For instance, some Malaysian experts have suggested that the defense establishment is quietly supportive of the AUKUS pact.) At the same time, those nations that are most delicately poised between China and the U.S. can’t be seen to support it publicly."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/malaysia-to-seek-chinese-views-on-new-aukus-security-pact/
美軍時間不夠, 盟邦聯防來湊:
"Better yet, leveraging the rising enthusiasm about the potential for Quad-based cooperation, Japan can propose to work closely with the U.S. and Australia to look for ways to create a similar security cooperation framework among the Quad partners."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/aukus-lessons-for-japans-defense-industry/
"The Western democracies and many of China’s neighbors do want to contain China as it exists today, although few will say it. Specifically, they want to contain the Chinese Communist Party. Much of the world is aghast at China’s treatment of minorities such as Uyghurs and Tibetans, credible evidence of forced organ harvesting, technology and IP theft, and the CCP’s increasing obsession with state control over the daily lives of individuals.
Most topically, China’s refusal to cooperate openly and professionally with a scientific investigation into the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic will remain an open sore for decades to come in the minds and hearts of many around the world, particularly among those who have lost loved ones to the disease."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/10/chinas-aukus-response-highlights-beijings-bunker-mentality/
賴怡忠這篇點出了美國將遠交軍事同盟與在地經濟同盟的雙分印太策略:
"美英澳同盟的出場，最直接的受益者就是既有的「四方安全對話」（QUAD）。這是因為QUAD與AUKUS存在互補關係。當軍事色彩極強的AUKUS出場後，馬上使得QUAD自此無須再肩負軍事合作主要推動者的功能，也更確認了QUAD之後不會演變為亞洲北約。這個走向應該能讓外界加入QUAD，或是參與QUAD+的活動後，在面對中國的指控時，就會有十足的的正當性。
必須要注意的，是當QUAD的身分會更趨向於在科技、經貿、供應鏈、衛生醫療等領域發展廣義的安全合作時，馬拉巴軍演（Malabar Exercise）還是會持續，但這就已經不會是在印太區域的唯一民主國家聯合軍事演練，而會是眾多印太民主國家的操演重點之一。
QUAD成立時被東協等國攻擊為過度軍事化，以及會傷及東協中心性。但前者的指控，在這幾年QUAD刻意發展其他非軍事領域的議題合作後，其效度已經失去不少。後者則顯得像是東協對自己的能力與存在感缺乏信心，才會一直要其他強權尊重「東協中心性」。但隨著QUAD的軍事色彩因「美英澳同盟」的出現而大幅下降後，東協國家對於QUAD的排斥態度也會下降不少。"
下一次的馬拉巴軍演很可能就是澳印並重了:
"印度海軍將出動蘭維賈伊號（INS Ranvijay）驅逐艦、薩特普拉號（INS Satpura）巡防艦、P-8I長程海上巡邏機和一艘潛艦；美國海軍則由卡爾文森號航空母艦率領兩艘驅逐艦─香普蘭湖號（USS Lake Champlain）和史托克代爾號（USS Stockdale）。
日本海上自衛隊將派出加賀號（JS Kaga）和村雨號（JS Murasame）兩艘護衛艦參演；澳洲皇家海軍則由巴拉瑞特號（HMAS Ballarat）巡防艦和天狼星號（HMAS Sirius）補給艦為代表。"
今年的馬拉巴爾又來啦~
"共同社中文網報導，聯合軍演在日本關東地方以南的太平洋上實施反潛、艦對空訓練及海上補給等，美方出動雷根號航空母艦（USS Ronald Reagan CVN-76）；日本派出護衛艦日向號、不知火號及高波號；印度及澳洲也派出護衛艦參與。"
印澳各派兩艦一機一隊參與馬拉巴爾演習:
"Japan has deployed five warships and a surveillance aircraft while U.S. fielded its Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier, two other ships, a P-8A long range surveillance aircraft and special operation force personnel. Indian Navy has two warships INS Shivalik, INS Kamorta, a P-8I aircraft and MARCOS (Marine Commandos) and Australia’s presence includes two warships and a P-8A aircraft along with special forces."
日本印度聯合軍演進展到了空軍:
"航空自衛隊表示，聯合演訓時將第7航空團將派出2架F-2戰機、小松基地航空戰術教導團派出4架F-15J戰機，隸屬於埼玉縣入間基地的中部航空警戒管制團則會負責戰管指揮。印度空軍方面則是派出第220中隊的4架Su-30MKI戰機、1架IL-78加油機、2架搭載維修裝備與地勤人員的C-17運輸機。
此次日印聯合戰機演訓將從16日舉行，持續至26日，為期11天，演習範圍位於百里基地及周邊空域，入間基地也納入範圍內。"
三個月後的美印軍演又見到日本:
"美軍本次共派出C-130J、C-17A全球霸主戰略運輸機、MC-130特戰運輸加油機，並首度由南達科他州艾斯沃斯（Ellsworth Air Force Base）空軍基地調派2架B-1B槍騎兵戰略轟炸機，及多架從日本嘉手納空軍基地前往的F-15E戰鬥機，參與本次印美聯合軍演。"
"日本航空自衛隊首度以觀察員身分出席，這通常是日後更深度參與的前兆。"
