這篇提及的是央視節目<軍武零距離>所報導的HQ-17A野戰進程防空系統及遭美方制裁的中國北方工業集團生產之裝載反坦克飛彈的ZBL-09輪式步兵戰車。
"This week, the Global Times reported that the Xinjiang Military Command recently took delivery of China’s latest field air defense missile system. Reportedly, this is the fifth recent acquisition for the command in terms of new weaponry. The new air defense missile system is identified as the HQ-17A field air defense missile system.
In addition, the Xinjiang Military Command is also reported to have taken delivery of and begun operating a new infantry fighting vehicle (IFV), the North Industries Group Corporation (Norinco)-produced ZBL-09 (also called Type 09). The new IFV, which can carry anti-tank guided missiles, took part in a recent military exercise. "
https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/chinas-pla-upgrades-its-forces-along-disputed-border-with-india/
從林芝到背崩的公路完成也令旁邊有三條公路等著蓋的印度提高警覺:
" The 67.22-kilometer-long highway was constructed at a cost of $310 million and took almost seven years to complete, according to Xinhuanet. It cuts the distance between Nyingchi and Baibung from the current 346 kilometers to 180 kilometers, and reduces travel time by eight hours."
"In the pipeline are three major roads, the Arunachal Frontier Highway, the Trans-Arunachal Highway and the Arunachal East-West Corridor. However, work on these highway projects is still at an early stage."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/china-completes-new-highway-near-defacto-border-with-india/
"根據《德國之聲》報導,新加坡國立大學南亞研究所印度軍事專家約西(Yogesh Joshi)表示,對於印度在中印邊境增兵他並不意外,在軍事談判中常見的情況在於,當雙方在試圖達成協議時,他們也必須讓對方知道,他們有意願與資源可以延續衝突。
約西認為,這點對印度來說十分重要,中國解放軍在去年4月及5月曾對邊境發動突襲式行動,讓印度現在沒有被動空間,因為印度不能再失去更多領土,像中印邊境這樣的崎嶇環境,失土很難收復,所以對印度來說,只要派駐夠多軍隊,在未來可能衝突中的選擇也更多。
約西指出,印度戰略方針一向都是盡可能地威懾中國,如果此方針無法奏效,中國就會發動攻勢、奪取領地,因此印度近期這波部隊調動是為了堵住邊境缺口,未來若是中國再度發動攻擊時,印度也能迅速反擊。"
達到廿萬軍員的規模足以引起國際對此區情勢的注意:
"四位熟悉印度边境增军消息的人士告诉彭博社,在过去几个月中,印度已将部队和战斗机中队转移到与中国交界的三个不同地区。其中两人说,总的来说,印度现在大约有20万部队集中在边境地区,比去年增加了40%以上。"
印中的海軍軍備策略差異:
" in the first decade of the new millennium, both the IN and PLAN had set wheels in motion to pursue robust aircraft carrier programs. India recognized the need to overhaul their carrier force with newer, more capable ships, while China sought to procure the beginnings of a robust carrier capability."
沒想到印度海軍已經談妥這麼多軍事後勤協議了:
"Today, India has such military logistics agreements with Australia, Japan, the United States – the Quad countries – as well as with France, Singapore, and South Korea. India is currently in the process of finalizing such an agreement with the U.K. and in talks with other partners like Vietnam.
These agreements go a long way in expanding India’s military reach, especially maritime outreach and influence in various regions that are strategically important to India. On a practical note, it saves enormous time and reduces overall costs of the lengthy bookkeeping exercises that the militaries have to otherwise do with each visit, such as when the respective militaries are involved in operations like humanitarian assistance and disaster relief or even bilateral military exercises. "
https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/indias-military-outreach-military-logistics-agreements/
中方的看法偏向把印太戰略是美國主導而印方消極配合缺乏積極動機的因勢利導:
" Above all, the prospects of a true “alliance” between the United States and India are held back by a long-running philosophy of non-alignment in India’s foreign policy.
India-Russia relations are also often cited in PLA media as a factor preventing India from forming a true alliance with the U.S. "
https://thediplomat.com/2021/10/how-does-chinas-military-view-india/
可以推測之後的中國邊界管制會更嚴了:
"10月14日,中國與不丹政府代表透過視訊簽署諒解備忘錄,宣示兩國將加速邊界談判進度,並推動雙方建交。而這項備忘錄簽署後9天,中國方面便通過「陸地國界法」,被中國及外國媒體普遍解讀為針對印度而來。"
"德國之聲解讀,「陸地國界法」是中國現代史上第一次制定專門法律,規定如何管理和防衛長達2.2萬公里、與14國相鄰的陸地邊界。"
印度這邊開始砸錢戍邊了:
"Singh estimated that about 10 tons of supplies delivered by truck costs roughly $1,500, whereas a one-hour flight of a C-17 aircraft carrying 50 tons costs about $345,000. Service officials said the Indian Army has spent about $100 million to establish several hundred camps with adequate electricity, water, heating and other facilities; some of those camps are based near the border across the eastern Ladakh region."
印度對周邊國家的親中舉措也是頗為忌憚:
"If such a base is fully established, surveillance flights could track movements to and from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and survey the Indian Ocean, they said. That intelligence could end up in the hands of Beijing, either shared by Myanmar or obtained through Chinese espionage, the report said. "
印度的防中手段積極很多:
"據美國商業民調機構Morning Consult調查顯示,約43%印度人將中國視為最大軍事威脅,這甚至比宿敵巴基斯坦的排名更靠前,究其原因,與中印2020年爆發邊境流血衝突有關,印度自那時起便開始嚴密監控中企在印度的投資、金錢流向、稅務及營運。
印度2020年開始頒布外國直接投資(FDI)新政,要求與其接壤的國家在投資印度或是參與公共建設投標之前,皆必須提前在主管機關登記審查,而中國是印度最主要的投資國,因此該政策也被認為是替中國量身定做,且在政策推出後,中企赴印投資數量也確實出現「斷崖式下跌」。"
"印度近年還常利用稅收和法律合規等手段打壓中企。自2020年起,至少有500家中企受到印度稅務和合規性普查,逾200款的中國App,包含TikTok(抖音國際版)、微信(Wechat)等,也被印度以「維護國安」為由禁用,中國App在印度幾乎不見蹤影,嚴厲程度比美國更狠。"
"印媒指出,印軍已在實際控制線沿線部署六萬八千名士兵,以及三三○輛步兵戰車、九十輛坦克、數門火砲、地對空導引武器和雷達等。印度空軍也部署多支戰鬥中隊,採「攻擊態勢」,並持續以飆風、蘇愷-30、米格-29、美洲虎等戰機和遠程遙控飛行器等監控共軍動態,可在五到七分鐘內升空,也具備全天候作戰能力。
一名印度官員表明,加萬谷事件後局勢可能升級,維持可靠的力量來加強軍事嚇阻很重要。儘管印中雙方談判正在進行,但印軍已做好應對拉達克地區任何潛在狀況的準備。據了解,印中兩軍十四日將舉行第十九輪軍長級會談,為四月後首次,也是為印度總理莫迪和中國國家主席習近平可能在八月底的南非「金磚五國」(BRICS)峰會場邊會晤暖身。此外,習近平預計九月前往新德里參加「廿國集團」(G20)峰會。印方一直強調,若不恢復邊境和平安寧,印中關係不可能正常化。"
不出席國際場合令有的人開始預測習近平健康不豫下會衍生的中國問題了:
"包子現在大權獨攬,日本人稱為一人體制。任何官員哪怕有什麼政策上的微調,都要他拍板才算數。現在他的清醒時間到底還有多少?很多官員在懷疑,不說別的,政治局會議,以往每個月開,現在愛開不開,新華社現在發的文稿越來越簡單,應該應對的問題沒有對策。
我們都知道中國現在的問題很大,也知道中國必須非常謹慎小心才能應對,問題是,今年以來換上來的就是廢人,而且上面負責拍板的獨裁者,不只能力差,還是個病人。潘功勝,人民銀行的新行長,經歷與學歷不如郭樹清與易綱,但是卻大權獨攬,而人民幣的匯率保衛戰是接下來中共政府存亡的頭等大事。
上回皇帝不上朝20年的明神宗有告訴我們什麼歴史教訓嗎?一人體制的國家如果碰到皇上怠工,整個國家是沒有辦法繼續運作的,它只能等待崩潰,沒有其他的可能。"