Recently, there has been much discussion among analysts and Ukrainians about the possibility of Russia launching a large-scale offensive. Some have suggested that Russia has amassed an army of up to 200,000, 500,000, or even millions of troops and equipment near the Ukrainian border. However, it is highly unlikely that such a large force could be mobilized and deployed without being noticed. Furthermore, the Russian mobilization capacity is not capable of accumulating such a large number of personnel in such a short time. The highest rate of mobilization was in October 2021, and the average monthly compensation for losses among Russians is currently at 50,000. This suggests that Rusia is preparing for offensive actions, but does not have the resources that many are suggesting. It is possible that the Russian Federation will attempt to launch an offensive, but it is likely to be unsuccessful due to a lack of equipment, artillery, supplies, and support.
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