The consequences that a Russian victory would entail. OPINION RUSI

The missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, as well as the persistent work of the Russian special services to undermine support for Ukraine in NATO and EU countries – carried out with the help of numerous agents of influence including politicians, journalists and experts in these countries – are both designed to degrade the will to continue the fight.

Ukraine stands fast. In the West, however, both public attitudes and the attitudes of ruling elites are putting at risk the volume of military-technical assistance to Ukraine. The failure of the US government to secure approval from Congress to finance aid to Ukraine for 2024 is an example of the success of Russian efforts.

Assessing the consequences of a complete or even partial victory for Russia: For Ukraine, the consequences are pretty clear. Putin does not hide his genocidal intentions to destroy Ukraine as an independent state and Ukrainians as a separate people.

Increase of refugees
Although the threat to the civilian population remains, Ukrainians prefer to stay in their country, and are even returning. Of the 8 million Ukrainians who fled the war in 2022, only about 4 million remain in Europe. But such a situation is extremely fragile, and depends directly on the provision of aid to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Turning Ukraine into a new Syria:
Even a short-term loss of the Armed Forces of Ukraine's ability to deter Russian aggression will inevitably upend the current equilibrium. Ukrainians will undoubtedly continue the struggle even then, but it will increasingly turn into an irregular insurgent war, it will be practically impossible to keep large territories under Ukrainian control, and even more so to protect the civilian population. Just look at Syria to imagine the nature of such a war. The methodical use of airstrikes and the destruction of resisting cities would not leave Ukraine with much of a chance even in the medium term.

The consequence for the West and especially for the US as the leader of the free world would be no less catastrophic.

Russia fighting US and NATO is the widely spread perception not only in Russia but also in other autocratic states and countries across the Global South. Thus, any situation that can be passed off by Russia as a victory – that is, any achievements resulting from its aggression – will be seen by these countries as a direct defeat of the West and especially the US.

China, Iran and North Korea increasing military growth without the US's image as the leading military power. The Global South will seek special relationships with these countries, displacing the US as an international security broker. This would further undermine the US position and also limit access to their markets, as well as the ability to obtain strategic materials from them.

Forget NATO.
The unwillingness of the US to provide Ukraine with enough weapons to win the war with Russia, even without raising troop at a low cost, calls into question the US’s readiness to protect individual NATO countries from aggression.

The withdrawal of the US from Europe, the principal goal of first the Soviets and now Russia, would immediately be capitalised upon by Russia and China. For the US, the loss of Europe equals losing the status of leader of the free world. Together with the loss of European markets, it would mean the inevitable end of the era of US politics, military and economical dominance.

Read all

@freerussia_report