From "The Analyst"
RUSSIA HUMILIATED AGAIN
Ukrainian marines stormed a Black Sea platform the Russians had been using as a monitoring station. They captured the radar and comms systems, dismantling them and taking them away, before blowing up the platform and heading safely home.
The platform was the last one the Russians had that monitored the north western Black Sea and coast of free Ukraine. It was also used to guide Shaheed drones towards Odesa.
Meanwhile deeply embarrassing video found its way to the internet.
The video shows a Russian S-400 site not even on alert, as StormShadow missiles fly right over the top in full view. It’s almost mind boggling in its elegant simplicity and outlines the total failure of the long range air surveillance for Crimea, and the huge success of Ukraine in eliminating it.
The video has caused outrage in Russia although it is technically explainable. Without the long range radar the missiles weren’t detected so the S-400 isn’t alerted to turn on its own radar to operate. It can’t risk turning its radar on permanently or HARM’s will surely find and destroy it.
Whichever way you look at it the inability of the air defence systems to function, is extraordinarily effective and Ukrainian strategy taking them out so completely has been completely right.
Even worse is that the S-400 and Pantsir site was so close to Belbeck
Airbase that you can see the missiles hit it.
AVDIVKA
Meanwhile at Avdivka the Russians persist in their attacks in the north and constantly send in attack groups of 2-6 men one after the other. In addition they have been hammering the defences of the area with repeated FAB-500 strikes to weaken the front and rear support areas.
Added to that the use of thermobaric weapons has created devastation in the centre of Avdivka which is their ultimate goal as the push into this area.
The situation is very grave and defending here with thermobarics inbound is excruciatingly dangerous and hard. A thermobaric works almost like a nuclear weapon on a small scale, usually dispersing a fuel-air explosive vapour that detonates at extremely high pressure, causing an intense but fast dissipating effect with very high levels of overpressure. It literally crushes humans and knocks down any unreinforced material such as walls. The heat is also so intense little inside its effective range can survive. The zone inside the range of the explosion also consumes its oxygen for a few seconds, leading to asphyxiation, if by some miracle you haven’t been burned or crushed.
The downside is the launchers have to be close to the target - around 2-3km is usual, which makes them vulnerable to drone attacks.
The fighting is so intense that Ukrainian drone operators are working 24 hour shifts to repel the attacks and somehow, though god knows how, Ukraine is holding the line. The problem is withdrawing would change nothing as the Russians just use the same tactics on the new area which quickly becomes no easier to defend than the original line. So they stay. Such heroism is hard to imagine and their determined approach is deeply inspirational.
The cost to Russia is running at around 500 men a day just in Avdivka and over 1000 every day this past week. By the end of next week they will have passed the 400,000 dead total.
They seem desperate to capture Avdivka for Putins political purposes prior to his inevitable re-election. He seems to want it desperately to prove the war has meaning. Because like it or not, as the Washington Post reported at some depth this morning, the level of opposition is rising sharply - more are willing to publicly support the Mothers and the last candidate to stand any chance of challenging him is likely to be disqualified. Even so, increasing protests and under the surface opposition to the war is growing.
The bravery of the Ukrainian people is truly astounding.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!