A new report from Oslo-based Arctic Securities estimates today that around 20% of Russia’s refining capacity has been knocked offline with as much as 3m more barrels per day at risk from increasingly daring raids by Ukrainian drones. The 20% estimate is a significant jump from last week’s 15% estimate from NATO and comes as flooding over the weekend took out another Russian refinery.
Kyiv’s strategy to target its enemy’s oil refinery infrastructure has also forced Russia, traditionally a net exporter of gasoline, to tap its neighbours for emergency fuel supplies.
“Recent Russian efforts to import gasoline from Belarus and Kazakhstan indicate that Russia is likely increasingly concerned about the immediate domestic supply of distillate petroleum products following Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries,” the Washington DC-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a note yesterday.
“As of now, 10 refineries have been struck and estimations suggest total capacity hit YTD is above 1m barrels per day, which represents ~20% of total capacity, with another 3m barrels per day at risk,” Arctic Securities reported in a note to clients, which included a map of the attacks (above).
🇺🇦@ukraine_report 🇺🇦🔱 Liz
