Feng Yujun, a professor at Peking University and Deputy Dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, believes that Russia’s defeat in the ongoing war with Ukraine is inevitable. In an analysis for The Economist, he outlined several reasons for this assessment.

Yujun argues that Russia’s struggle in the war stems from its failure to recover from the significant deindustrialization it underwent after the collapse of the USSR. Additionally, he highlights the information cocoon surrounding Russian decision-making, particularly due to Putin’s prolonged tenure in power.

Despite Russia’s nuclear capabilities, Yujun asserts that its eventual withdrawal from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea, is inevitable. He credits Ukraine’s resilience and unity in resisting Russian aggression for dispelling the myth of Russia’s military invincibility.

Regarding China’s relationship with Russia, Yujun notes instability, influenced by recent events. China’s stance has shifted from unconditional support to a more traditional stance of non-alignment, non-confrontation, and non-targeting of third parties.

Yujun suggests that without significant changes in Russia’s political system and ideology, the conflict may stagnate or escalate further. He warns against the possibility of a Korean-style ceasefire, as Russia continues to attack Ukrainian positions and infrastructure, potentially leading to more conflicts in the future.