Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20, 2024 (A few highlights regarding US aid)

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• Because the aid passed in the House of Representatives of the US must also pass the Senate and be signed by President Joe Biden, weapons and ammo from this aid package will probably take several weeks to find their way to the frontlines. The frontline will, therefore, remain in a precarious state. Prompt arrival of aid from the Americans should allow Ukraine to blunt the overall Russian offensive efforts.

• Ukraine will likely be in a significantly improved operation position by June 2024 and Russian military command will most likely reconsider several aspects of their anticipated 2024 offensive in the Kharkiv region.

• The anticipated resumption of US military aid to Kyiv is a significant turning point in this war, but the Kremlin, the collective West, and Ukraine still have many difficult decisions to make. All of which will help determine the nature and outcome of the fighting.

Because the aid passed in the House of Representatives of the US must also pass the Senate and be signed by President Joe Biden, weapons and ammo from this aid package will probably take several weeks to find their way to the frontlines. The frontline will, therefore, remain in a precarious state. Prompt arrival of aid from the Americans should allow Ukraine to blunt the overall Russian offensive efforts.

The US Senate will reportedly vote on the bill sometime in the coming week. Pentagon Spokesperson Brigadier General Patrick Ryder stated on April 19 that the Pentagon’s robust logistics system will allow the United States to move security assistance within a matter of “days” and that he believes that the United States will be able to “rush the security assistance in volumes” that the United States believes Ukraine will need to be successful.

US Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander reportedly told US lawmakers that the Pentagon would begin moving ammunition, artillery shells, and air defense assets quickly once Congress approves the aid.

US media reported that US officials stated that the US Department of Defense (DoD) has been assembling the first tranche of resumed US security assistance for Ukraine ahead of the vote in the US House of Representatives but noted that the Biden administration has yet to make a final decision on how large the first tranche of aid will be or what it will include.

US officials reportedly stated that the United States will be able to “almost immediately” send certain munitions to Ukraine from US storage facilities in Europe, particularly critically needed 155mm artillery shells and air defense missiles.

The US officials noted that other security assistance will likely take weeks to arrive in Ukraine depending on where it is currently stored.

Ukraine has systematically improved its military logistics operations in recent months, but this new system has not yet accommodated a sudden and large influx of materiel, and no system would be able to immediately distribute large quantities of material throughout the frontline.

Ukrainian forces will therefore likely continue to face ongoing shortages of artillery ammunition and air defense interceptors in the coming weeks and the corresponding constraints that these shortages are placing on Ukraine’s ability to conduct effective defensive operations.

Ukrainian artillery shortages are letting Russian mechanized forces make marginal tactical gains, and Ukraine’s degraded air defense capabilities are permitting Russian aviation to heavily degrade Ukrainian defenses along the front with glide bomb strikes.

Russian forces could continue to leverage these operational advantages in the coming weeks to make further tactical gains and destabilize the Ukrainian defensive line in hopes of achieving operationally significant advances.

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