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The United States and its Western allies must provide Ukraine with regular and consistent aid and deliver new critical systems to Ukrainian forces in a timely and effective manner for Western security assistance to have operationally significant effects.

ISW has been considering a very wide forecast cone from the most advantageous to the most dangerous possible outcomes in recent months due to the uncertainty about the resumption of US aid to Ukraine.

ISW will likely be narrowing the forecast cone in the coming months as the impacts of Western security assistance become clearer in Ukraine and as the Kremlin decides how to respond.

Key Points from April 20th, 2024’s Update:

1.) The US House of Representatives passed a supplemental appropriations bill on April 20th, which is intended to provide $60 billion of assistance to Ukraine. The bill must now be passed by the Senate and signed by the president before any aid may head to Ukraine.

2.) These two requirements coupled with the logistics of transporting US material to Ukraine’s frontlines will mean the US assistance most likely won’t produce a noticeable effect for several weeks. The situation at the front will remain precarious in the meantime.

3.) Ukrainian forces may suffer additional setbacks in the coming weeks, but they should be able to blunt the overall Russian offensive once the US aid arrives.

4.) The US overcoming its political differences, at least momentarily, is a critical turning point in the war in Ukraine. However, all players involved will have to make critical decisions in the near- and long-term future.

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