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“Destruction for destruction’s sake” is how Farrell described the bombardment. But it’s not. It’s standard practice for Russian warplanes to destroy civilian buildings in front-line communities in order to deprive Ukrainian troops of shelter. That the Russians are glide-bombing Vovchansk could be an indicator they intend to escalate their ground assault on the city.

If Russia’s northern campaign is a feint, then the aim is probably to draw—from the east to the north—Ukrainian brigades defending battleground cities such as Chasiv Yar. If the campaign is a real offensive, then entire regiments might attack Vovchansk in the coming days.

The dilemma, for Ukrainian leaders, is that a feint can turn into an offensive with little notice—as long as the Russians can spare the forces from their operations in the east. “It is a shrewd approach, considering Ukraine's manpower constraints,” Finnish analyst Joni Askola wrote.

*The Ukrainian military isn’t taking chances. Elements of several brigades, including the 59th Motorized Brigade and the 93rd Assault Brigade, are already in Vovchansk—or on the way. Notably, the 93rd Assault Brigade is bringing its best CV90 IFVs.*

Ukrainian commander in chief Oleksandr Syrskyi insisted his troops would deploy and redeploy to match the Russians’ moves. “We are aware of the enemy's plans and can respond flexibly to all of his actions,” Syrskyi said.

But even Syrskyi’s optimism concedes one important fact: Russia is acting; Ukraine is reacting. That means the Russians have the initiative.

- David Axe, Forbes

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