THE MACRON DOCTRINE

You might think this February past Macron decided to change the rules and everyone else would come rushing in and put him back in his box, brush it under the carpet and declare it merely a thought, a president thinking out loud.
In many nations that’s entirely likely but this is France, and under the constitution of the Fifth Republic, the office of President is one of the most singularly powerful in any western democracy. Other than its 7 year term being cut to 5 - against the wishes of then President Chirac, nothing has changed. Two terms is still ten years, 25% longer than a US President. Presidential power over foreign affairs is nearly absolute, and the President is head of the armed forces and controls the nuclear codes
completely. Even if the government is an opposition party, and it’s happened, the President still reigns supreme in this area.
Macron is in his second term, he has no electoral concerns, he can’t stand again. He has decided after years of trying to play ball with Putin, that enough is enough. And for that I admire him hugely.
The western media isolated Macron and so did many of his allies. There was a wailing from Berlin you could hear across Europe.
He looked like an idiot being told to sit down.
Except…Katja Kallas PM of Estonia agreed with him. Then so did President Pavel of Czechia. In Prague in March, Macron declared ‘Europe is cut in two by cowardice…(prepared)..to abandon its destiny to totalitarianism’.
That blew the doors off. Germany was fuming and Moscow was screaming about French imperialism.
Russian annoyance and its subsequent statements only reinforced what Macron was saying.
Macron hasn’t backed down. He’s become more specific. He’s prepared to actually send in troops if Russia broke through Ukrainian defences and Ukraine asks for help.
He’s made it clear that he won’t give Russia lines to cross - deterrence only works if you don’t know what those lines are.
It’s not just about NATO. He knows that Trump is potentially going to win the US election and another bout of that moron in office is the last thing anyone really needs. Europe in Macron’s view, needs to stand up and face off Moscow on its own without the US. And it’s a message that’s getting through.
Macron is calling out Putin for everything he does. Telling Putin directly what he thinks and knows he is doing - to France and its allies. Macron is largely supported by the key Eastern European allies. The old western states seem more reluctant.
Macron and I have a similar approach. Once a position is seen as unviable you do something radical to regain the initiative. Leadership requires thinking out of the box, being prepared to do something different.
Macron made a difference to how we all think and may well act.
After all, tanks were never being sent, long range missiles were never being sent, F-16’s were never being sent ever. Until they were.
Is Macron a genius who worked out how Putin works and has started to use it against him? Maybe. Is strategic ambiguity of doing or not doing something radical in Ukraine a deterrent? Maybe.
Only time will tell. Personally I think Macron was daring and said what needed saying. Time, I suspect may prove him right.
Putin himself uses the tactic all the time - he keeps threatening something that could be the result of crossing his invisible red lines. Maybe this is what he understands. Macron saw it and called his bluff. Call Macron what you like, but he’s the ideal messenger to get through to Putin. It’s probably the one message from the west that Putin heard and understood. And that’s invaluable.
It’s an uncertain situation. And that’s the point. Russia can’t be sure unless it happens and if it does - well that’s going to be interesting, Russia may well regret it. Russia doesn’t want a war with NATO. It would be catastrophic even if it didn’t end in nuclear use. Maybe the prospect at engaging French and other forces in Ukraine is a point that cannot be reached. And that may just at some point, end the war.