The war in Ukraine has exposed a critical vulnerability in the allies' plans to arm Ukraine: a shortage of explosives needed to produce shells and missiles. Each artillery shell requires approximately 10.8 kg of high explosives, such as TNT, Octogen, or Hexogen, and throwing projectiles over long distances also necessitates significant amounts of propellants.

The situation is even more dire for other munitions, such as the Storm Shadow missile, which has a high-explosive warhead weighing 450 kg. The challenge lies in the limited capacity of explosives manufacturers to ramp up production. The end of the Cold War led many European manufacturers to scale down or cease operations, resulting in the closure of plants and the privatization or mothballing of state enterprises. For example, the UK closed its last explosives plant in 2008.

Restarting these mothballed plants is not a simple task. It requires significant retooling and rebuilding of capacity. Additionally, the industry faces a shortage of skilled workers, as older engineers retire and fewer young people enter the profession. The supply chain for critical raw materials, such as chemical precursors and cotton fibers, is also strained. Nitric acid, essential for producing nitrocellulose, is in short supply due to its use in fertilizer production. Cotton fibers are predominantly imported from China, adding to the supply chain complexity.

This shortage presents a significant obstacle to the allies' efforts to support Ukraine's defense against Russia's aggression, highlighting the need for strategic planning and investment in the defense industry's infrastructure and workforce.

Source:

https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/05/26/there-is-an-explosive-flaw-in-the-plan-to-rearm-ukraine#