From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX

NATO, HUNGARY & THE EU

Victor Orban’s pseudo fascist government is currently holder of the EU presidency, starting from July 1st to the end of December.
Orban has used this to parade in Moscow and Beijing, after a visit to Ukraine which did not by all accounts go well. Let’s call it cordial but pointless. The nations of the EU who hold the rotating presidency - it takes 13 ½ years to get through everyone - find it has had progressively less importance than it used to. It’s one of those things nobody wants to drop but has little real impact on EU affairs, far less than it did many years ago. It’s more like a First Lady role in American terms. You get to state your opinion and your views on pet projects - often promoting things that might get overlooked. Orban has chosen to act as the peacemaker without a peace plan.
He has no power or authority to represent the EU - but likes to puff his chest and look the part of… well what really?
Orban has now called a peace plan conference of EU ministers in Budapest - he has no right to do so on behalf of the EU and the EU isn’t going to stand for it. The outgoing head of Foreign and Security Matters, Joseph Borrell, has decided to call a formal meeting of EU foreign ministers the same day as Orban’s, which as it has legal authority will be attended.
Just to put the brakes even harder on Orban’s peacocking and self promotion - the new head of Foreign Relations and security for the EU is almost certainly the outstanding and formidable Kaja Kallas, who just resigned from her role as Prime Minister of Estonia to take the role. Nobody in Europe could be better suited to take up this portfolio. She will stand up for the Baltic’s, Poland and Ukraine and will maintain a powerful EU position that will unify the 26 who care while isolating further the one that clearly doesn’t.
Orban will meet his match in Ms Kallas.
NATO held its meeting - which was less thrilling than many expected. It represented 75 years of defending Western Values and democracy - despite having in its membership the autocracy of Orban’s Hungary and the somewhat tamed after the last elections, the semi-autocracy of Erdogan’s Turkey. These politicians are however transitory. Eventually they will pass.
The biggest concerns privately were what happens if Trump is re-elected? And that’s where the EU and NATO start to cover the same ground.
There is no question that like it or not, Europe is not going to be and cannot be the USA’s primary concern. Geopolitical instability is making it that the Asia Pacific region and China must be American priorities. By now, goes the theory, the Europeans should be able to fend for themselves. Frankly I concur. American military might has been an umbrella that has allowed Europe to avoid its fair share of the burden. It’s the only thing I agree with Trump on. Even now one third of the NATO membership still hasn’t reached 2.0% of GDP on defence. Yet talk of 2.5% is everywhere.
The UK continues to state that’s its aim is 2.5%, but when its aim will hit the target nobody will say. Yet another massive Strategic Defence Review is underway - expect it to conclude in a year’s time - give it to me and I can do it in one hour.
The idea is to stop this British (and by extension discourage others in Europe) from involvement in Asia. None of us has the military capability to change the outcomes so far from home and therefore there’s no point in trying. There really isn’t.
What we can do between us all is contain Russian air and naval forces in the NATO area and we can defend from any future Russian land attack. Provided we carry on the industrial and resource development toward rearmament.