From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX

SUSTAINABLE OPERATIONS? NOT EVEN CLOSE FOR RUSSIA

According to British intelligence and open source information, Russia has over the course of the past 12 months , produced just under 750 BMP-3 (IFV), while having lost around 780 of them over the same time frame.
However the BMP-1, 2 and MT-LB are now largely exhausted and completely irreplaceable. So allowing for the rough 1 loss to 1 new vehicle - which is quite an impressive rate, is still nowhere near enough to make up for stockpiled and now exhausted supplies of every other type.
Clearly they simply don’t have the production to meet the requirements the army has - in fact they cannot possibly reach the numbers required to make any inroads into the losses overall.
Then you have the artillery problem. Yesterday alone Ukraine took out 62 Russian artillery pieces. Many of these were D-30 sixty + year old systems of towed artillery that have either been dragged out of stores and refurbished or supplied by N.Korea. These are lower calibre, shorter ranged towed and manned pieces that are far from cutting edge. It’s a 122mm piece that first entered service in 1960 and was designed around 1957.
This is now Russia’s main artillery because the Ukrainians have reduced the modern SPG and heavy artillery to such low levels by concentrating so heavily on Russian artillery for over a year now.
In terms of air defence systems Russia has now been observed to have removed all of the equipment in 11 of 17 of its recognised strategic air defence sites around the country, to get them to the front. Replacing these systems is virtually impossible.
And if that wasn’t sufficient, the British intelligence estimate based on satellites and official and open source information- shows Russia lost 70,000 men just in May-June.
That’s simply staggering in modern war and approaching WW1 levels of death rates.
Again, Russia is not sustaining this war with what it needs to win it, its domestic production simply isn’t able to meet demand so every day the Ukrainians attrition war against Russia slowly you would think, pays off.
And it does in that Russia kills far fewer Ukrainians than it loses of its own badly resourced and trained soldiers.
Yet that cannot be said of land regained.
Like it or not Ukraine is still, over all, losing more ground than it retakes and the Russians still keep advancing bit by tiny bit in various spots along the front.
This has to be stopped. And it needs to be reversed. Because until it is, peace can never be achieved on terms Ukraine can live with. Somewhere along the line Russia’s unsustainable war must cost it dearly - and right now that’s just not happening.

‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX