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“The Ukrainian strike on the ferry crossings and subsequent attack on a nearby fuel depot again highlights the vulnerability of the strait to Ukrainian attacks, despite russia's significant investment in security and air defence,”
Britain's military intelligence agency said in a statement.
A senior US official who follows the war closely said Ukraine is using US-supplied long-range missiles "very effectively". The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Ukraine has enough ATACMS to support the Crimean campaign, adding that ammunition is being replenished on an ongoing basis.
Without giving exact numbers, the official said the United States was sending "dozens" of missiles, but not "hundreds."
Continued attacks on russian air defenses could force Moscow to move some military aircraft from Crimea “or risk losing more aircraft,” British intelligence said.
Ukraine is putting pressure on the Biden administration to lift restrictions on strikes deep into the russian Federation, in particular against air bases.
"Imagine what we can achieve when all restrictions are lifted,"
Zelensky said in a speech last week at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute in Washington.
Ben Hodges, the former commander of U.S. Army Europe who has long advocated for giving Ukraine long-range strike capabilities, said he has been impressed by Ukrainian targeting methodology since the advent of ATACMS.
"They're doing what we would do. Doing air defense to lay the groundwork for what comes next," he said.
F-16 fighter jets are expected to begin flying over Ukraine in limited numbers this summer, but their effectiveness would be limited if russia's air defenses remained intact.
“If you want your drones, F-16s or any other assets to hit large targets, you need to clear the way,” Hodges said.
russia has responded to increased attacks on Crimea by bringing in air defense systems from Kaliningrad and other parts of the country, according to Ukrainian and Western officials. The Kremlin also sent its S-500 Prometheus air defense system to the battlefield for the first time.
London-based defense intelligence firm Janes said its analysts had visually confirmed the deployment of at least the radar component of the S-500 in Crimea.
russia still has powerful air defenses - this became evident during a recent attack that was likely aimed at the Belbek air base north of Sevastopol. Debris from an intercepted Ukrainian missile fell onto a beach, killing five civilians, russian officials said.
russia immediately blamed the United States for the deaths, and the Kremlin summoned the American ambassador in Moscow. The russian Ministry of Defense Murder warned that strikes on Crimea increase “the risk of a direct clash between the Alliance and the russian Federation.”
But Ukraine shows no signs of slowing down its campaign in Crimea. Locals write in public pages that crowds of tourists have disappeared from the peninsula. While people still go to the beaches, one person said, some now wear badges with their name, home address and contact information for their immediate family.
(slightly edited)
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