From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX

F-16: REALITY MAY PROVE DAUNTING

The arrival of F-16’s is imminent. Just a handful, not even a full squadron. They are possibly one of the most politically charged targets Ukraine has ever possessed. Only HIMARS and Patriot launchers have ever been so high value to the Russians - but F-16 takes that title and runs with it. Losses are inevitable but they will be very public and very loud. That we must be prepared for.
Yet the F-16 variants being supplied to Ukraine are we have to remember, far from top of the line. Their capabilities are compelling but compromised by their radars. They are also relatively short ranged when operating in a country that is the size of Ukraine.
Their safety suggests they will have to operate from the rear most and easily defended bases, but operational range depends on altitude. Low altitude operations burn fuel at a high rate, high altitude takes time to reach and burns fuel but being up there is more effective and more economic. The trouble with being up high is Russian anti air systems and radars can see them and Russian fighters with newer radars and very long range air to air missiles will be hunting them.
Take a scenario where an F-16 takes off from the far west and climb to 35,000ft as economically as possible - by which time it’s half way over Ukraine. The mission is to deter or destroy glide bomb running Su-34’s some 70km behind the front line. To maximise the bomb range height is essential.
By the time the F-16 radar can even see the Su-34, the F-16 is only 10-30km behind the frontline. To get the most out of its AMRAAM it needs to be fired at around Mach 1.3. The AMRAAM burns for around 7 seconds taking it to around Mach 4 before the rocket motor stops. It’s kinetic energy plus the low air resistance increases its range and it locks on to the Su-34 - depending on the Su-34 and experience of its pilot it’s about a 50-50 chance of being hit or escaping depending on whether or not it’s dropped its bomb.
Meanwhile the F-16 is in full range of an S-400 ground based system and the missile is incoming. The F-16 needs to turn and run as fast as possible, likely having to dive down to low altitude in the opposite direction to the incoming missile at very high speed.
Give it the benefit of the doubt and say it avoids the missile. Its fuel is now chronically low and it can’t get back to its operating base.
It must quickly land at a forward operating refuelling point and there are only three of these set up so far. The closest is just within range. It’s an old and not well maintained base the Russians have hit many times before 120km behind the front.
It will be rough, the runway has not been well maintained because the Russians would see it and know something was up.
As the F-16 comes into land the refuelling rig and the attendant crew race to readiness, breaking cover from their well camouflaged but flimsy shelter.
The F-16 bumps along the runway to the pilots alarm but stops where it needs to. The refuelling rig and crew are on him fast. He admires the way they get on with it. He needs enough just to fly back to his main operating base to disarm, then he’ll fly to Poland for maintenance.
High overhead, where it’s been for two hours, having been launched hours before, part of an ongoing and highly successful program of strategic reconnaissance, with several major kills to its name (including several Su-27, a Mig-29 and and M270 MLRS) an Orlan-10 long range loitering spy drone sees what’s happening. It’s been waiting just for this type of operation. The operator admires the fact the Ukrainians had hidden themselves so effectively but he can see the F-16 taxi as the refuelling rig breaks cover. He waits until they stop and issues the coordinates to the Iskander-M team. Within 30 seconds launch is ordered, less than 2 minutes and the missile is on its way from the standby system kept alert for just this kind of rapid response.
Flight time is under three minutes at this range. CONT..