2/2 CONTINUES
The more you put against a weaker force - the bigger the number you have, the inevitable result will be that you will overcome the defence. They had done this but suddenly changed tack.
They diverted forces south to attack Krasnohirivka - that failed. New York was bogged down, and by taking these forces out of the central front and loosing them in the mire of battle where they could not succeed - the basic numbers game - they weakened their principle battle force expanding the salient. In essence they stopped their own advance, by becoming distracted by objectives they failed to provide with enough force to take. They ‘self-attrited’ and wasted irreplaceable resources against increasingly strong Ukrainian defences fortified by new aid.
In simple terms I think their commander got cold feet. Rather than double down on the main offensive - because he came close to a significant breakthrough, he got distracted by easier targets and a widening of his responsibility area. For whatever reason the Russian command expanded the Central Group of Forces operational area, but without giving them enough to sustain the main operation. Dilution results inevitably, in weakening.
This has now created a wider problem for the Central Group command. They managed a breakthrough in the north of the Avdivka front along a key rail line almost by accident and advanced suddenly, threatening to overwhelm the Ukrainians on the east bank of the Vovcha River and a sizeable reservoir by coming in behind them and forcing their retreat westward. This would allow the centre of the Central Group salient to advance.
However the Ukrainians have had time to ready defences and are better supplied and organised. A giant pincer attack from the north of the salient and the south of it seems almost beyond what the Russians can manage with sufficient force to succeed against defenders far better equipped and prepared than they were. The Russians would have to coordinate their attack in a way they have shown little capability to do - but as a result of stultifying command practices and poor comms equipment.
It seems unlikely the Ukrainians will sit and let themselves get surrounded, they’re far to active to do so.
In short the Russians may make small gains, but the power and pace of their offensives from Pokorovsk (which was largely opportunistic and not well organised), to the south at Krasnohorivka, finally seems to be slowing down dramatically and weakening.
It isn’t over but it’s almost done.
Ukraine has made some damaging mistakes, but not at any point have their soldiers turned away from battle or failed to defend out of lack of courage or fear.
It’s been a hard summer and a hot one. Conditions have been harsh, the heat brutal. Land has been lost but lives have been saved. The road ahead is long.
Victory is coming - I remain sure of it.

‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!