From "The Analyst"

KURSK UPDATE

The ‘why’ of the operation is still a major issue for many. Nobody really understands why the Ukrainians are doing this and why they have allocated valuable forces from hard pushed frontline areas to this operation.
This is why I don’t believe it can be as simple as it looks and when you look at the map look at the SW extension.
If they have started an operation at Kolotilivka - and we’ve seen very limited video and little has been reported other than something happened, and Ukrainian forces stormed the border crossing, this arm is the point that could marry up with an operation spreading from the new entry point.
Opsec is tighter than anything I’ve ever seen in this war. Way better than it was in 2023.
Russians are treating this in entirely the wrong way. Putin’s ruling that this is a CTO is frankly absurd, giving the whole thing to the FSB to run only ensures callous behaviour, not competence. Shoigu must be delighted he’s not Defence Minster right now.
Other aspects are the re-emergence of Belorussian assistance - they have been dead quiet and deliberately so. Trying to keep their heads down and out of it. Until Putin demands extra equipment and that they hand over as much as they can as fast as they can to help block the Kursk advance. Of course Lukashenko jumped as soon as he was prodded into action.
There is talk of Ukraine creating a ‘buffer zone’, setting up military administration and offering evacuation safe corridors for those who want it. They’ve made it clear this is not a long term land grab, just a strategic necessity.
I still believe it has more to it. At this point I’d be very disappointed if it doesn’t. Because if this is all it is, its long term value is dubious. It has to be more, to be worth all this effort.