CONTINUES..
The northern Ukrainian flank seems to be aiming for a major river line that would act as a stabilising defensive position, behind which they can dig in. Some of the charities that have funded diggers for Ukraine have seen them deployed in the region, suggesting defences are being readied in captured areas.
It’s not all gone the Ukrainians way. At least one advance group was badly mauled by Lancett-3 drones although most of the troops survived they lost their vehicles.
The Ukrainians managed to conduct a pincer movement to capture the remains of the key town of Sudzha - they had taken up to the river but crossed it north and south and captured the Russians by encircling them.
We know too, that Russian forces have seen the Ukrainians 30km deep into the south and west of the front. There remains no word on the Kolomikivka situation which is of concern in the wider scheme of things - it may only have been a distraction attack which is starting to make the Kursk offensive look like a negotiating tactic and nuisance.
I pray this is not the case. The Kursk salient they are occupying cannot expand indefinitely- Ukraine would never be able to defend it. The speed of advance and the constant pressure on the Russians is its greatest strength. As long as that can be sustained- because as soon as it stops the game changes dramatically. So this has to be turned south at some point, it has to start to threaten the northern front and the Kharkiv incursion at the very least and have a deeper purpose, surely? It can’t be as shallow as a simple land grab for negotiations?
Putin is a man mired in the ‘sunk return fallacy’. He has doubled and tripled down on this war he started even though the cost in men, material and treasure is driving his country to its doom.
As the fallacy implies, the effort is still made, the resources still ploughed in, even though it would be wiser, cheaper and easier to stop the whole thing and admit it’s a failure. He cannot, the expense to obtain victory is sinking his ship of state and there’s no getting the investment back. Putting in more will change nothing but he will persist anyway. If Ukraine can’t see that just taking Russian land won’t make him negotiate they too have their own problem.
This offensive has to be more than it looks right now. If it’s not, then I fear for its ultimate survival and value. I still worry this is a lot of short term joy for long term pain.
It could as I said at the start of it, be a massive folly, I prey it is not. We must not get carried away with the delight of seeing Russia humiliated and confused as flags are torn from admin buildings. This must serve a wider purpose and contribute significantly to victory.
Right now it goes well. Long may it continue.

‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!