From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX

BAD DAY FOR RUSSIA

In military history it’s not uncommon for a surprise attack to have an agonising set of rolling failures follow. Shock to the defender who is unprepared leads to a scramble to defend against what may be overwhelming momentum, nothing is where it needs to be, commanders can’t get a grip. Morale plummets and soldiers retreat under pressure when they know they cannot win. Things seem pointless. No matter what command does, it just won’t come together.
The other day I mentioned the need for the Russians to redeploy well away from the operating front. If they are to get any grip they have to concede the one thing have that’s truly plentiful - territory. Only when they are ready should they then engage - that’s how they realised they could stop the Nazi invasion in 1941. Sacrifice whatever they had to and defend what mattered. Then turn the tide at a place of your own choosing. Moscow in 1941, stymied the Nazis. From that point the war was lost even though the invasion carried on as far as Stalingrad, which turned the tide completely. The Nazis last stand that could have possibly led to talks if they had won - and Stalin was willing - happened to be of all places, Kursk. In mid 1943 the biggest tank battle in history resulted in a cascading defeat Germany never recovered from.
I mention this because you would think with this much history behind them and so much devastation that occurred, the Russians would look back and think ‘we know how to do this, we’ve been here before’.
Yet no. They are making catastrophic mistakes - the same mistakes they made in 1941 and in 1914. In 1914 they had open channel radios. No codes. The Germans just listened in, just as the Ukrainians are 110 years later, because they still use open channel radios. It’s mind boggling in its incompetence.
Yesterday a Russian convoy of vehicles and soldiers was headed north away from the advancing Ukrainian forces in a headlong retreat, using a major road. A Russian Mi-28 attack helicopter swooped in and proudly videoed itself decimating the convoy, destroying its vehicles and killing half its conscript troops.
And they posted it on their propaganda channels at the Russian MOD because they didn’t even know what they’d done - declaring the destruction to be Ukrainian forces they’d stopped.
Added to this is the innovation and imagination of Ukrainian forces. Using a simple deception tactic, they used the telephone to call Russian authorities in their path and, posing as Moscow or Kursk officials, ordered widespread evacuations.
This lead to panic and Russians fleeing in their cars - ordered to use both lanes of major roads to escape. This caused traffic mayhem and blocked up the roads the Russians needed to get close to the ‘front’ if it can be called that in such a mobile situation. Added to that the Ukrainians send lightly armoured units well ahead, this sows panic and they engage any forward troops they encounter often before they can deploy. A fire fight ensues and the Ukrainians call in supporting forces of drones and if possible ground and air strikes. The stunned Russians most often turn and run or surrender, having no command and no guidance as to what to do.
The stupidity of the regime goes even further, with TV broadcasting live troop movements on camera in easily identifiable places. The regime wants people to see it’s doing something while completely undermining any sense of operational security. HIMARS strikes are known to have completely destroyed at least one convoy. Images of dead and injured soldiers along with burned out vehicles were then live posted on telegram by escaping civilians.
Yet again the Russians were only too ready to send in Chechen Akhmat units to act as barrier troops to stop Russians retreating. As soon as the Chechens found the Ukrainians they fled and Ukraine captured several.
The Russians are also getting desperate - they’re using Iskander SRBM’s to hit moving targets and missing by a mile, and wondering why. CONTINUES…