More from the anonymous military analyst about Kursk. Again, not very positive. What do you think?
OBJECTIVE REVEALED
This morning has seen a whole series of Ukrainian statements placing the Kursk offensive squarely in negotiation ploy category. From the president to the CinC, talk of an ‘(territorial) exchange fund’, ‘negotiations on our own terms’ and so on have been coming pretty thickly.
The destruction of key bridges that will protect the Ukrainian positions and hamper Russian movements tends to indicate that in places, the offensive has peaked, while it drives on in others.
If this pans out as I suspect this will be the order of things.
1. Partial consolidation in sectors easily defended. While deeper sectors have their comms and supply lines bolstered.
2. Some areas will continue to push forward but the steam is running out as lines reach maximum viable supply points.
3. Those areas will then try to consolidate.
4. The Russians will take their time to prepare a counter offensive.
5. Ukraine withdraws the elite units it used to spearhead the operation to shore up defences in the eastern front regions.
6. The Russians launch their counter attack and slowly but surely the Ukrainians loose what they have taken.
7. The worst scenario is that the front caves in because it’s too wide, and then you have Russians coming over the border in an area you have to defend, that if you had never started this, they would never be.
I appreciate this is a very negative view of things but this is what I am most afraid of. Long term, unless something drastic and dramatic happens in Russia, I can’t see anything else. How else is this to go? It’s just widened the front and left Ukraine’s valuable newly mobilised forces not reinforcing the desperate eastern front, but spread out propping up this collapsing bubble.
I am seriously worried this has opened up more than Ukraine can cope with.
Unless the Russians make some appallingly bad decisions and screw things up really badly, which given their form is quite possible, does anyone see this ending well? It could be two months maybe three or more, but if this front becomes a burden, its strategic value is worthless.
@ukrainejournal