MILITARY & STRATEGIC:
RUSSIAN KORNEVO COLLAPSE

Ukrainian forces were able to catch the Russian defenders completely off guard, breaking through into this key town on the northern part of the Kursk salient.
The Ukrainian advance had been slowed by reservoirs and the Krepna river on one side, which allowed the Russians to build up defensive forces on their side of it.
The Ukrainians already had control of a small village, Shiravli, but the roads and basic infrastructure were far from conducive to a major military operation to get behind the Russians.
Once over the river the Ukrainians could turn and head west through three smaller villages north of the river, and push the Russians out - eventually bringing them to Kornevo, the key town.
To the east of the salient Ukrainian forces are engaging scattered groups of Russian naval infantry whose aim is to skirmish with Ukrainian units to slow them down - they don’t expect to stop them. Ukraine needs to push from the south through the Russian naval infantry, north, then swing some of those units west to join at Shiravli. They can then push west with other units to capture Kornevo in a giant right hook.
South of Kornevo, Russian forces are relatively weak, most of them actually being in the town.
The Ukrainians managed to capture three key villages south of the town putting them in a secure position if the Russians made a move. The large forest south of Kornevo permitted the Ukrainians to sneak into the area and get close.
Sensing alarm at Ukrainian moves the commander of the Russian forces decided to deploy some of his units to the flanks outside of the town - they believed they had managed to stop the Ukrainians as they had made no move against Kornevo itself. This thinned his forces in the town to try and hold up any advance through the north bank villages and south of the forest.
The Ukrainians are experts at spotting opportunities and quickly saw what had happened - launching a rapid strike into Kornevo and pushing the Russians half way out of the town before they knew what was even happening. At the same time the Ukrainian forces exploited the diluted forces on the flanks and attacked those too.
The Russians appear to be completely overwhelmed in the town and have no reserves to support them, so much so that the loss of the town is seen as inevitable.
Ukrainians have forced the remaining Russian flanking forces into headlong retreat.
The Russian naval infantry was largely defeated - so much so that the Ukrainian forces managed to get so far behind their lines they captured their EW anti-drone vehicle intact.
The swift moving Ukrainians have been too much for the Russians who are not used or trained for this type of operation.
However we need to look more deeply at what the Russians are doing because it falls in line with what I said over a week ago. We need to be very aware this is how Russian forces manage these scenarios.
They have - and their propaganda backs it up, accepted the loss of territory for now and they know they will lose more. All they can do is exactly what the naval infantry are doing - delays and ambush and skirmish.
If they can defend a town and slow the Ukrainians up that’s what they will do, but high command doesn’t truly expect it to work. It’s all about gaining time. Meanwhile they will build defensive positions out of reach and prepare forces at a distance for either a line defence or for an eventual counter attack.
They have accepted the Ukrainians have the initiative right now - but they have land and patience enough to wait until they are ready to react.
This is exactly how they operated once the shock of invasion passed in 1941. Sacrificial delays while troops were dragged in from other places to mount a defence at a place of their choosing.
What Ukraine has to decide is how far it really wants to go, and not play into Russian hands and attack their defence lines which are some 20km or more away.
Ukraine needs to assess its own defensive positions, not get greedy or over extend itself. CONTINUES…