The Analyst

SHELL STARVATION ALERTS FOR RUSSIA

Russian Z-bloggers are complaining about a rapidly growing shortage of shells in various parts of the front line, with dire warnings that the problem is quickly spreading.
They know the issue is caused by the destruction of the vital depots by Ukraine, but they can’t understand why, with factories pouring out shells every day, they aren’t arriving in the frontline.
Partly that’s down to volumes.
If you have three million shells continuously in storage and use 300,000 a month while producing 200,000 and importing random numbers from N Korea, then you’re only using up around 50-100k per month. You have a big cushion that rises and falls depending on use and replacement.
Remove the cushion - as Ukraine has done and you have two problems. One is getting the shells from the factory to the front when you no longer have the distribution point of the depots. You don’t just reorganise something on that scale overnight - or even in a couple of weeks. The system in place was flowing well and worked perfectly until Ukraine destroyed it. Rebuilding it is a massive undertaking, even more so as Russian railways suffer from constant ‘partisan’ problems. Then there is the issue of redeploying trucks and creating new distribution nodes. Preferably ones not as easily taken out as the depots.
Remember too, this is Russia. Things don’t happen very fast and there was never anyway at any time this wasn’t going to take time and have impact in the front.
Over time they will overcome it, by it’s likely cripple the Russians ability to maintain the advances they’ve managed in the past couple of months.
The bloggers are complaining that orders aren’t changing though, officers are still forcing heatwave attacks without supporting infantry - something one described as ‘criminal orders’.
It’s tough in the Russian army. But who this side of the frontline cares because I don’t. The more they suffer the happier I am.

‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini🇺🇦!