MILITARY & STRATEGIC:
1/2 FRONTLINE UPDATE

The situation in Kursk is difficult to ascertain. The areas directly controlled by either side are reasonably clear - and Ukraine has lost a lot of ground around the entire front. However the grey zone is in places as much as 1-10km deep.
What this indicates is that both sides are quite mobile and there’s a lot of overlap in where they are fighting - there’s no fixed frontline nor the forces available to create one on either side.
At Vovchansk the Ukrainians have successfully driven the Russians in the east of the town almost completely out, and they’re having a hard time holding the ground they have left.
Fighting has largely slowed until you get to Chasiv Yar which has remained oddly static for weeks now, the Russians preferring to focus on the Pokrovsk salient.
However the Ukrainians had quite the success there in the last couple of days.
A significant Russian attack was stymied on the southern flank because Ukrainians managed to isolate and kill the force commander - Russian C2 isn’t good without its central direction and there’s rarely anyone who can jump in and take control if a commander dies, it’s just not how they do things. A western commander would have at least one and
as many as three junior officers all knowing who was next in line and what the plan was.
The Russians focused on the southern flank because it’s an easier target. Get through the forest and create a spike attack towards Stopochky, in turn giving them leverage to attack Chasiv Yar from the south, avoiding a costly east-west assault through heavy defences.
The Russians have smothered the area in front of Chasiv Yar, occupied Bakhmut and Ivaniske with EW systems - severely impairing Ukrainian drone operations and allowing them the benefit of being able to congregate quickly using metalled roads rather than cross country. So they quickly assembled a sizeable strike force.
During the night the Russians used the forest which is heavily wooded still and not yet blown to matchwood, and got over the canal tunnel, behind Ukrainian lines.
As soon as the Russians were detected the Ukrainians quickly and quietly cut them off in the forest and hammered them with
drones and ground assault troops. Meanwhile second group prepared a counter assault from the south to cut in and behind the Russian lines. The death of the Russian commander left the force decapitated and undirected - swallowed up in the Ukraine operation. Ukraine regained a sizeable bridgehead and took back territory the Russians will find it hard to regain.
Added to that is the ammunition situation for Russia.
The Ukrainians as part of the above operation used JDAM’s in the Russian ammo depot in Bakhmut. Ammo is clearly a problem. There is no doubt that the Russians along the entire front are showing clear signs of reduced capability and activity. The steady flow of ammunition has been severely hampered by the loss of the main supply depots and the removal of such large quantities of ammunition in the supply chain has had a marked impact. It’s only temporary- probably about a month or so - but it buys valuable time for the weather to change and for Ukraine to prepare its defence lines.
I’m not entirely sure these play such a part any more for Ukraine.
The advent of the glide bombs in such large numbers, and the Russians gaining experience in using them with almost no means for Ukraine to challenge their use in the air - either by eliminating the delivery aircraft or the bombs, has changed the game.
Soldiers will tell you to avoid drones, you need to be dug in using relatively narrow trenches so the drones can’t get in so easily and chase men down. But the glide bombs make light work of complex trench systems by blowing them apart.
Ukrainians have used their defence lines in the Pokrovsk salient and in the north and northwest it’s largely held - but in places it’s already been breached. 1 of 2