MILITARY & STRATEGIC:
RUSSIANS RISKY ATTACK COMES UNDONE

Sometimes it surprises me how small some of these important operations are in key areas. When you’ve spent literally months of your life researching and reading battles that involved tens of - hundreds of thousands of- even millions of men, three BTR-82’s and 28 Russian storm troopers seems like something of a let down.
Yet that’s what Russia sent hurtling towards Malya Lockna to drive out Ukrainian forces and recapture the important junction there. They hoped that it would then cut off Ukrainian forces north and northwest of the position.
Racing along the highway from their recently seized junction village - two of the BTR were wiped out before they managed the second of the 7km journey.
A single Ukrainian T-64 destroyed the last one by waiting in the road until it came in sight and blasted it.
The Russians had started their attack from Zelishnyak village, and then Ukrainian decided now was the time to counterattack.
Ukraine’s 36th Marine Brigade then deployed six troop carrying vehicles to launch an attack south of the village, destroying six Russian vehicles.
Russian forces preparing another attack were hit by artillery and drones as well as and their vehicles eliminated - many of the Russians had to crawl to safety in woodland.
The result was the seizure of some 2km of ground and Ukrainian forces right on the outskirts of Zelishnyak.
Further assaults using Bradley’s and Abram’s from the north, courtesy of the 47th Brigade squeezed the Russians back further.
The Bradley’s are fearsome when it comes to suppressing infantry in tree lines. The high speed fire of the 25mm gun means the enemy has no time to react and the shell penetrates deep through soil and wood trenches before exploding so nobody is willing to stick their head above the line to react. Most defending Russians are killed in situ. The M-1 Abrams rather than acting as an armoured fist, is used as a heavy assault weapon, destroying houses and buildings the Russians are trying to fire from and hide in.
This led to the recapture of a small village and another kilometre of ground.
Again I bring your attention to the scale of these operations. They’re intrinsically small scale and yet have potentially huge consequences.
With Russian resources you would expect them to be much larger operations with near certain chances to make it through, yet they risk feeble BTR-82’s that are notorious for their thin skins, in a mad dash where they hope speed will overcome resistance.
A handful of Ukrainian units undid the whole operation and reversed it.
I look at the Russians and think they’re not taking this seriously enough. If they were and they had the resources how is this not yet over? What are they waiting for?
Ukraine seems to be hanging on by its fingernails in northern Kursk and yet Russia seems to be playing to Ukrainian strengths.  It’s like they haven’t learned anything in three years of war.
Meanwhile the Ukrainians seem to be waiting for the Russians next move which is almost too easy to predict and then react to it quickly and decisively- always the best way; stop it before it gets worse.
Russia has now extended its Kursk retake deadline from October 7 to 15, to 30, and now February 28 2025, ‘allowing for seasonal conditions’.
The Russians have nothing but their own incompetence to blame for this. Any quality commander with the resources given would have had this done by now. Instead they have dithered about, argued about what to do and allowed the Ukrainians to feed in some crack units, that are experienced and capable enough they don’t need vast amounts of equipment to run rings around amateur Russian officers and their stupid orders.
In any military analysis it has to be said the Russians stole the march on the Ukrainians, both in scale of the attack from the west and the location - it paid huge dividends. Then somewhere along the line they lost the plot.