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Our role has been pivotal because — as President Zelensky has told me more than once — without Britain there might not have been a still largely free Ukraine today. We cajoled, led by example and embarrassed other nations into joining us.
This is the existential test for the West. We said it was unacceptable for democratic Ukraine to be invaded by a larger autocratic neighbour. We pledged support, introduced sanctions and provided weapons and training. Our intelligence reveals that few pay greater attention than the administration in Beijing.
Make no mistake: China and other authoritarian states want us to fail. Such countries show little regard for democracy or the rights of their own citizens. Their purpose is to change the world order to benefit their own totalitarian regimes. Yet the West doesn’t appear as unsettled as it should be.
If we now fail to do everything that is required to ensure Putin loses, then we will suffer the consequences not only here in Europe, but in the Indo-Pacific and the wider world.
The cost of allowing the use of our weapons, even inside Russia if Putin attacks from there, would be minimal compared with the consequences of Putin winning — and thereby allowing others to believe that you can time out the West’s interest. Now is therefore the time not only to provide long-range permission for our Storm Shadow missiles but to do so without awaiting a decision from Washington. That was the approach I took last year in Crimea — it worked then and it will work again now.
We should go further by doubling our defence support to Ukraine, despite the expense of restocking ammunition, while challenging the rest of Nato and other civilised countries to follow.
The cost is nothing compared with the potentially ruinous impact of a full-scale conflict between China and Taiwan.
The most cost-effective way to persuade the Chinese leadership to stand down is through peaceful political discussion and by ensuring that when the West says force will not prevail, we don’t just mean until we grow bored with supporting freedom.
Redoubling our support for Ukraine today would not only be doing the right thing but would also make an invasion of Taiwan much less likely, thereby protecting us from a recession or even depression.
Our work in the National Security Council led us to estimate the eye-watering cost of a Taiwanese blockade that lasted for, say, six months. But you don’t need me to spell out this cost because, thanks to open-source intelligence, you can find an estimate in a few clicks. I suggest that this time we act on that Osint.
