TRUMP & PUTIN MAKE FIRST MOVES

Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron are set to discuss measures to persuade Donald Trump from scaling back US support for Ukraine, anticipating shifts in American foreign policy with Trump’s election. The talks will focus on persuading President Joe Biden to authorize Ukraine’s use of Storm Shadow missiles to strike deeper into Russian territory, a request Kyiv has pursued for months. UK officials hope that Biden’s approval would help solidify his foreign policy legacy and provide Ukraine with a strategic advantage. The discussions reflect broader concerns among European leaders about the impact of Trump’s expected policies on Ukraine’s defence.
This comes from the fact that Trump has already spoken to Putin, warning him not to escalate the situation in Ukraine. This was all done outside of US Government channels which Trump is suspicious of.
Originally, it was expected that Mike Pompeo  and others would likely be in the new administration but comments that ‘war hawks’ were not welcome were added to Trumps specific message not to bring Pompeo aboard. That was simply a move to humiliate- any decent person would have just said nothing and ignored them.
Meanwhile Trumps son has been posting memes of Zelensky losing his ‘allowance’ once Trump is sworn in.
Anyone with any sense that things will be different with Trump this time round - that experience will have taught him to act ‘normally’ or as close as he can manage it, will in my opinion, be deeply misguided. He isn’t going to be better, he’s going to be worse - he hates ‘the system’ so much and blames it for everything that’s happened to him.
There’s not going to be any holding back. ‘Expect the unexpected’ is the only rule to hold in the new regime when it takes hold.
Old allegiances will be judged very differently. Europe needs to get its act together because it’s going to be a rough ride.
The question is how do the Poles, the East Europeans plan to stand up and be counted. Trump admires Poland and its President has a positive relationship with him. Every possible bit of leverage that Europe can gain to tip the balance in Ukraine’s favour is going to be needed.
It will be an uphill battle.
Putin will be pushing himself to breaking point to gain as much as he can before he has to deal with Trump.
It’s an odd conundrum.
He knows Trump will want peace and be wanting to be seen as having achieved it. Trump is intent not to be seen as having been forced into it, or into making Ukraine a vassal of Russia as a price for it, because it would make him look weak. So  Putin needs to ensure Trump looks good while getting what Putin wants. And that will mean some kind of compromise.
And in the end Kyiv has got to agree to it so it’s not all as easy as Trump might assume. Nor will Europe abandon Ukraine completely- even though it will be glad the war ends.
The danger is that Trump tries to broker peace, Ukraine and Russia don’t agree and Trump walks away and lets them get on with it - that would be bad for everyone. Europe would have the entire war landed on its plate, Ukraine would have the fight of its life to deal with and Putin is so far up the tree he’s climbed he can’t come back down and he may never reach the top, as his economy cracks and starts to collapse. In that desperate scenario who knows where it ends or how?
Western governments are going to have to be able to rethink how they operate and respond in this second coming of Trump. Agility, the ability to be transactional no matter how unprincipled, and pandering to his views, will all be needed to get things done.
Our principal aim must be defending Ukraine no matter where the problems come from.

‘The Analyst’
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

@ukrainejournal