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Transnistria has also declared a state of emergency. Cheap Russian gas is not only a source of heat and light for the separatist statelet, but the basis of its entire economy. Transnistria’s exports of electricity generated from gas bring in valuable revenue, facilitate the operation of nearly one hundred industrial enterprises, and underwrite the legitimacy of the local authorities by ensuring utility bills remain low.

All of this made gas Moscow’s chief source of influence in the region—even more so than a small Russian military garrison whose combat readiness is questionable. That appears to be why Chișinău remained convinced the Kremlin would find a way to continue to pump gas to Transnistria.

Rising gas prices will inevitably feed through into price inflation for other goods and services, angering Moldovans. That unhappiness will damage the popularity of the pro-European Union ruling party at parliamentary elections that will take place within six months. Nevertheless, the current government does not appear to be prepared to implement any significant changes.

Indeed, there is little in the way of public discussion about the broader opportunities that an end of Russian gas supplies to Transnistria may open up for Moldova. Instead of focusing on the cost and benefits of being able to unify the country, Chișinău simply repeats that its main priority is joining the EU. Yet if there’s one thing that would accelerate Moldova’s EU accession, it’s resolving the long-running separatist conflict.