Fico’s Russian gas scare failed, writes Politico.

Kyiv’s refusal to renew the transit deal with the Kremlin did not lead to the disaster Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico had warned about. His attempt to keep purchasing Russian gas fell flat, sparking exaggerated claims of an energy crisis in Central Europe that ultimately proved unfounded.

Fico claimed the deal’s expiration would have “radical consequences” for the EU and even threatened to halt electricity exports to Kyiv in retaliation. He aligned with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to pressure Ukraine, but within days of the gas cutoff, forecasts of shortages proved false, and prices remained stable.

According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, Slovakia’s gas reserves are over three-quarters full—above the seasonal average—while Hungary’s stand at 68%. Austria and the Czech Republic, also previously reliant on Russian gas, have significant reserves.

Energy experts dismissed Fico’s warnings. Laurent Ruseckas of S&P Global stated, “There are no supply problems for Slovakia or neighboring countries like Austria and the Czech Republic. Storage is high, and there are plenty of alternatives.” Michal Kocurek of EGÚ echoed this, noting that the perceived risk traders used to manipulate prices is now gone. “Slovakia is well supplied, and prices in the EU market are falling,” he added.

Many suspect Fico’s crisis narrative was more about protecting profits from Russian gas transit. Economist Vladimir Voño of GLOBSEC pointed out that Slovakia had been preparing for this scenario for a long time, making Fico’s warnings dubious.

Although Slovakia may see a slight increase in energy bills, traders had already accounted for the deal’s termination. Germany’s decision to waive transit fees for gas delivered to Central Europe further cushioned the impact. However, Slovakia stands to lose millions in transit revenues, and Fico’s direct talks with Putin in Moscow have isolated him further from EU leaders.

Ultimately, Politico concludes, Fico’s gambit backfired, undermining his leverage over Ukraine and deepening tensions with the EU.