Lab leak vs natural spill over is a distraction from the lack of evidence that COVID-19 is a viral pandemic originating in China.

In my previous threads I showed that the lockdown in Wuhan was too late.

I showed that all cause mortality was already well above normal and an estimated 7 million people left the city in the weeks leading up to the lockdown, including 300,000 people on the eve of the lockdown.

I showed that the vast majority of international travelers went to other Asian countries.

I showed that studies, including the Seattle Flu Study, finding a lack of early spread of the virus lack plausibility due to the absence of false positives, and I showed that there is a larger body of contradictory evidence.

In this thread, I will show that the excess mortality during the spring 2020 wave was associated with a decline in emergency department utilization, not just for low acuity visits but for high acuity visits as well.

If this is confusing due to media reporting on overwhelmed hospitals, the confusion is coming from the fact that the emergency department and intensive care unit are separate.

I will present data showing that ED utilization went down while ICU utilization went up, suggesting that patients delayed care until it was too late.

ourworldindata.org/grapher/exc

nytimes.com/interactive/2020/0

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Where Have All the Heart Attacks Gone?

"The hospitals are eerily quiet, except for Covid-19.

I have heard this sentiment from fellow doctors across the United States and in many other countries.

We are all asking: Where are all the patients with heart attacks and stroke?

They are missing from our hospitals.

Yale New Haven Hospital, where I work, has almost 300 people stricken with Covid-19, and the numbers keep rising — and yet we are not yet at capacity because of a marked decline in our usual types of patients...

...What is striking is that many of the emergencies have disappeared.

Heart attack and stroke teams, always poised to rush in and save lives, are mostly idle...

...The most concerning possible explanation is that people stay home and suffer rather than risk coming to the hospital and getting infected with coronavirus...

...We actually expected to see more heart attacks during this time. Respiratory infections typically increase the risk of heart attacks...

...Also, times of stress increase the risk of heart attacks and strokes.

Depression, anxiety and frustration, feelings that the pandemic might exacerbate, are all associated with a doubling or more of heart attack risks."

nytimes.com/2020/04/06/well/li

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